2008 Fantasy Football Preview (Part 2)

Justin is the expert on drafting strategy and the such – so I’ll just get right down to business and give you my rankings.  He did have the perfect analogy for the fantasy baseball vs football argument.  I think he memorized that line from one of the 18 times he’s read Committed. If Mark St. Amant didn’t write that book, I question what books Justin would re-read.

NOTE: I didn’t read Justin’s rankings before I did my own.  To see his rankings, click here.

QUARTERBACKS

Questions surround Manning this year, but he will still be a top three QB.

1. Tom Brady (New England Patriots) – The future Hall of Famer tossed a league record 52 touchdowns in 2007 with an incredible mix of deep bombs, short precision, and three receivers that could dominate an opponent.  With defenses adapting (as they always do in the NFL from year-to-year) and the loss of #2 receiver Donte’ Stallworth, you’ll see Brady’s numbers decline in 2008.  Let’s be honest though, who could realistically expect him to be as dominant as he was last year?  Keep an eye on his injuries too – but I don’t see it affecting him.

2. Tony Romo (Dallas Cowboys) – Hard to believe that Peyton Manning isn’t in the Top-2 fantasy quarterbacks in the NFL (he’d be No. 2 in normal rankings).  Romo is the guy here because he is less risk at this point.  He’s got the best receiver in the NFL not named Moss, a Top-3 tight end in Jason Witten, an incredible running game and a massive offensive line.  Oh, and don’t forget to take into account their defense as well.  They’ll force lots of turnovers which will provide great field position for some quick strikes from Romo.  And if they bring in Joe Horn to battle for the No. 2 receiver job – you can lock Romo into this spot without question.

 3. Peyton Manning (Indianapolis Colts) – It’s a combination of circumstances that have led to Manning falling to No. 3 on this list.  First, the bursa sac on the knee.  Look, it’s not going to hold him out of games because, well, it’s Peyton Manning, and he hasn’t missed a start in his career.  I worry about Marvin Harrison as well.  He was questioned in the offseason about a shooting, had his ailing knee that kept him out of eleven regular season games, and is just getting plain old (36) for a playmaking NFL receiver.

4. Drew Brees (New Orleans Saints) - Over 67% completions last year with 4,000+ yards is good enough to make my Top-5.  Not to mention that he now has Jeremy Shockey patrolling the middle of the field.  Honestly, how do you pass defend this team?  You have Marques Colston running wild, Devery Henderson running deep, Shockey roaming the middle, and the duo of Duece McAllister and Reggie Bush swinging out of the backfield.  A No. 4 ranking may actually be too low for Brees.

5. Carson Palmer (Cincinnati Bengals) - He threw for 4,000 yards and 26 TD’s in 2007, but a league high 20 interceptions is what drove fantasy players crazy.  This may be a gutsy call, but I think the high INT count was just a blip on the radar.  God knows they’ll have to throw because the defense may be the worst in the NFL.  Chad Johnson is still a top flight WR, and T.J. Houshmandzadeh may be even better.  Look for Palmer to be right there in the conversation for 3rd best QB in the NFL again in 2008.

6. Derek Anderson (Cleveland Browns) – It really pains me to put Anderson here.  He was 10-for-11 to start last season (with one stinker coming against New England), but then fell off the proverbial table for the last five weeks of the season in which his team went 3-2, but lost games to against Arizona and Cincinnati.  I had him pegged for a one-hit wonder, but to tell ya the truth, how can you put him farther down on the list with the list of weapons he has?  Those guys include: Braylon Edwards, Donte’ Stallworth, and Kellen Winslow.  Those are three guys that can score whenever they touch the ball.  Can Anderson get it to them?

7. Matt Hasselbeck (Seattle Seahawks) – I originally had Hasselbeck higher, but steadily moved him down because I’m just not in love with what he has around him.  He’ll benefit from new blood at running back, including screen-man Julius Jones.  John Carlson will also help out at the tight end position as well.  Their receiving core is deep, but lacks a top-end talent that can take over a game if needed.  No matter though, Hasselbeck is your guy.

8. Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers) – I would have had Big Ben higher on my list if they hadn’t drafted Rashard Mendenhall.  You may be thinking, “You’re letting a rookie running back affect where you draft a QB?”  Absolutely!  You have to take everything into account.  Last year, the big question was which quarterback would you take second: Brady or Brees?  I chose Brady because Brees had lost Joe Horn, and it would in turn lead to double coverages.  Brady ended up dominating.  With Mendenhall, the Steelers have arguably the best 1-2 punch in the NFL at running back, and will keep pounding people into the ground until they’re stopped – which means lower numbers for Big Ben.

9. Donovan McNabb (Philadelphia Eagles) - Health is always an issue with McNabb.  So is his receiving core.  The Eagles went out and grabbed DeSean Jackson from Cal in the NFL Draft to give them a big play threat, but will that be enough to get them through the NFC East?  Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown are above average receivers, but they don’t provide the same potency as other top WR tandems in the NFL.  Brian Westbrook is always a factor in the passing game, but not enough to take McNabb higher on the list.

10. Kurt Warner (Arizona Cardinals) - In the first draft of this column, Matt Leinhart manned this spot.  Oops.  Didn’t see the 4-for-12 with three picks coming in the third preseason game.  Goodbye Matt, and hello Kurt!  Warner still has the arm and the poise to lead a good offense, and a good offense is exactly what he has.  He has Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald to flank him on each side, and a running game that should see a rise to the status of usability in 2008.

Sleeper: JaMarcus Russell (Oakland Raiders) – The organization as a whole is a mess, but they didn’t screw this pick up a year ago.  Russell has a potential breakout compliment in the backfield with Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden, and the receiving core is solid but not spectacular.  The question with the Raiders offense is whether or not they can protect the quarterback.

RUNNING BACKS

His time is coming, and sooner rather than later.

1. LaDainian Tomlinson (San Diego Chargers) - How dare thee think LDT isn’t the top running back in the league of fantasy!  Oh, and if anyone ever calls him LT again, I’ll personally gouge out their eyes!  Their is only one player in the sports world that can be nicknamed LT, and his name is Lorence Taylor!  Which brings me to my next point: Don’t…smoke…crack!  Until there is a great reason not to take Tomlinson with the top pick, then he’ll be the guy.  His thrown will never be taken.  He’ll be the one to decide when he gives it up.

2. Brian Westbrook (Philadelphia Eagles) - Count me among the eight fantasy football players that doesn’t have Adrian Peterson ranked as the second best running back.  Even though he is an above average injury risk, he can take any handoff and any pass to the house.  He had a spectacular 2007 campaign, and I expect more of the same in 2008.

3. Adrian Peterson (Minnesota Vikings) - No worries, I didn’t have him falling too far.  I question who the Vikings have quarterbacking their team.  They will consistently face eight or nine men in the box until Tarvaris Jackson can prove his worth under center.  He’ll also continue to split carries with Chester Taylor.  Don’t get me wrong, I love Adrian Peterson, but something just doesn’t seem right.  And for as great a running back as he is, I question his IQ of trying to take on LB’s and safeties, head first.

4. Joseph Addai (Indianapolis Colts) - Maybe the greatest trait of Peyton Manning is his willingness to keep the ball on the ground when he sees an opportunity to gain four yards.  When the Colts huddle up they call three plays, two of which being runs (one to each side) and the other being a pass play.  As an owner of Addai, you have to love those odds – especially considering that Manning isn’t afraid to throw the ball to him either.

5. Marion Barber III (Dallas Cowboys) - I really want to put him higher, but the talent you see above is just too much to deny top spots to.  I see MB3 having a huge year for the Cowboys with Julius Jones gone.  I know Felix Jones has taken his spot as the change-of-pace RB, but I don’t see him getting as much play as Julius.

6. Stephen Jackson (St. Louis Rams) - An injury plagued 2007 season led to the fall of Jackson to the six spot in my rankings.  He’s also been holding out for much of camp because of a contract spat, but is now back in the fold.  His offensive line is significantly weaker with Orlando Pace being a question mark every week, and Marc Bulger has never looked as bad as he did last season.  Still, this Oregon State grad can run through defenders with the best of them.

7. Frank Gore (San Francisco 49ers) - Let’s see.  Gore was a monster in 2006, did well in 2007, and now has Mike Martz running his offense in 2008.  I like that combination a lot, and it’s good enough for the No. 8 spot on this board.  The best part is, he’s as close to a one man show as you’re going to get from here on out.  Well…that is…except for…

8. Larry Johnson (Kansas City Chiefs) - I correctly predicted he’d fall off the table last year.  I’m puzzled as to why nobody to into account how drastically his offensive line changed from 2006 to 2007.  Nevertheless, I see him bouncing back this year.

9. Clinton Portis (Washington Redskins) - Now starts the list of guys that are starters, but will get plenty of carries taken away from them by skilled backups.  In this case, it’s Ladell Betts.  Also, with Joe Gibbs out of the picture, you have to wonder if Jim Zorn is going to run the football as much as Gibbs.  Portis is too good to pass up here though, and he could be a potential Top-5 guy.

10. Willie Parker (Pittsburgh Steelers) – Rashard Mendenhall fumbled twice in the third preseason games, and that will surely cost him some carries early on in the season.  Parker gained 1,300 yards last year, but only scored two touchdowns!  That won’t happen again this season.  He’ll bounce back to have a huge year for the, once again, run heavy Steelers.

Sleeper: Ahman Green (Houston Texans) - The third year with the offense under the control of zone blocking guru Gary Kubiak could be big numbers year for Green.  Although, if Kubiak learned anything from Mike Shanahan, it’s that darn near any running back can succeed in this system.

WIDE RECEIVER

There's nothing better than a third year reciever breaking out!

1. Randy Moss (New England Patriots) - Ahhhhh, the wonderful world of the wide receiver.  The NFL’s version of the premadonna is topped by a guy that when on a contending team is the exact opposite of the definition.  Or maybe Moss acted the way he did last year because Bill Belichick was his coach, and he can make even the flashiest of players seem humble.  Moss obliterated the touchdown record by catching 23 Tom Brady passes in the paint, and nearly had 1,600 yards receiving.  He’s going to have another fantastic season, but won’t approach the numbers he had last year.

2. Terrell Owens (Dallas Cowboys) - Here’s your premadonna.  The dude cried after they lost in the playoffs last year in defense of ‘his’ quarterback Tony Romo.  Maybe he was just sad that Tony spent the bye week they had in the playoffs with Jessica Simpson instead of him?  I dunno.  Owens’ talent, though, is undeniable.  Even without a standout No. 2 receiver, Owens fights through double teams and still makes big plays.

3. Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis Colts) - Marvin Harrison is getting old and Reggie Wayne is right in the prime of his career.  With a healthy Peyton Manning, you shouldn’t have to worry about taking Wayne in this spot.  He’s going to be great, and he’s gonna score you a ton of points.

4. Marques Colston (New Orleans Saints) - After breaking out as a seventh round pick in 2006, the 2007 season was a slight downgrade in terms of numbers for Colston.  Chalk that one up to injuries and departures all around the field for this fantasy stud.  He lost Joe Horn, and that hurt him early, but when Devery Henderson emerged as a big play threat, defenses had to trim down the double teams on Colston.  Factor in that Deuce McAllister was out, and they have added Shockey at tight end, and it all equals a big season for this guy.

5. Braylon Edwards (Cleveland Browns) - His talent is undeniable, but I worry a bit about Derek Anderson.  He struggled mightly down the stretch last year, and you have to wonder if that will weigh on him this year.  If we were going off pure talent alone, I would have Edwards at three, but that’s why you have to look at the peripherals in the fantasy world.

6. Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona Cardinals) – This could be too low for Fitzgerald, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he finished as the third best fantasy receiver in the NFL, but he’s the first guy on this list that you have to legitimately thing will get scores taken away from him by a counterpart.  Sure, Wayne has Marvin Harrison, and Moss has Wes Welker, but neither of those guys are as talented (Harrison purely because of age) Anquan Boldin, Fitzgerald’s teammate.

7. T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Cincinnati Bengals) – Wait a second, he’s really a Top-10 fantasy WR?  Let me check. 112 catches, 1,143 yards, 12 TDs.  Wow, I guess he qualifies.  Who would’ve figured that?  While the press remains focused on what Chad Johnson is doing or saying, Hoosh (can we just call him Hoosh?) puts up the numbers.  A solid choice.

8. Andre Johnson (Houston Texans) - I’m a huge fan of Johnson, but have loathed the guys throwing him the football…well…his entire career.  Matt Schaub has the best arm out of the crop of players that have been chuckin’ balls Johnson’s way during his career, and if he can stay healthy, you can expect some gaudy numbers by this legit deep threat.

9. Steve Smith (Carolina Panthers) - If Jake Delhomme is fully recovered from Tommy John surgery (it creeps me out to say that about a quarterback), then No. 9 on this list is wayyyy low.  He could have a monster season as long as the guy throwing him the football stays healthy, and I believe that will happen.

10. Plaxico Burress (New York Giants) - He’s the man in New York, and will continue to be such.  Eli knows that whenever he needs a big plays to throw the ball to 17.  Can anyone tell me why he was single covered on the final drive of the Super Bowl by a guy five inches shorter than him?  Please?  Anybody?  Bueller?

Sleeper: Jerricho Cotchery (New York Jets) - Two words: Brett Favre.  He takes normal, run of the mill men, and makes them stars (see Greg Jennings).  He’ll do the same this year with guys like Cotchery and Laveranues Coles, but with Coles being nicked up from time to time, I think your best bet is Cotchery.

TIGHT ENDS

Anyone who can score a TD helmetless is OK in my book.

1. Jason Witten (Dallas Cowboys) - He makes big plays in big moments, and never seems to drop the football.  Those are all the things you want in your tight end.  Witten might not be the first TE to go in your league, but I think he will have the biggest year, hence why he’s number one in my rankings.

2. Antonio Gates (San Diego Chargers) - It sounds like he’s got little nagging injuries, and that worries me a bit.  He never seems to miss a game though, so maybe I shouldn’t be worrying about it.  Something doesn’t feel right about the Chargers this year though.  I don’t know what it is, but it just feels weird.

3. Kellen Winslow (Cleveland Browns) - STEP AWAY FROM THE MOTORCYCLE!  If he repeats those five words when he wakes up every morning, you can chalk him up for 1,000 yards and 7 TD’s.  I keep bringing up Derek Anderson’s name though.  Will he fall into a sophomore slump (sophomore year starting, that is).

4. Tony Gonzalez (Kansas City Chiefs) - Is Brodie Croyle a starting NFL quarterback?  We’ll see.  Nonetheless, this is the guy every quarterback dreams about seeing over the middle in the same colored uniform.  Big, soft hands, incredible verticle touch, he’s going to nothing short of this usual this season…which is pretty darn good.

5. Dallas Clark (Indianapolis Colts) - He’s not going to rack up the amount of yards that the others will, but he’ll put the ball in the endzone – probably more than any of the rest of this group.  He’s either going to score you one point, or double digits on a weekly basis.  So if you can figure out which weeks he’s going to score the ball, let me know.

Sleeper: Ben Utecht (Cincinnati Bengals) - Another weapon for the Carson Palmer offense, I think you’ll see him utilized in a similar way to Dallas Clark.  He’s not going to blow you away with the amount of yards he gains, but he’ll catch some TD passes from Carson Palmer – and points are points, baby!  You should know this by now!