Welcome, ladies and gentlemen, to the official TOUTS 2008 Fantasy Football Preview Thingy…
Tomorrow Chad will post his rankings, but for today you are stuck with me.
By now you may have already drafted, and shame on you for that, I hope you didn’t pick up Matt Leinhart as your starting QB.
You should be pretty familiar with all the names by now, so Chad and I just want to give you a refresher course before your draft. I have my first draft on Wednesday, after a year of listening to The Fantasy Football Guys’ podcast I finally get a chance to be in a league with them. I can honestly say that about 75 percent of all my fantasy football news comes from their site, they do a weekly podcast and have a pretty kick-arse forum, so check that out if you want. I’ll be making reference to some of their strategies throughout my rankings, so keep a look-out for some of the links.
Alright, enough with the plugs, let’s get to business. I remember the first year I played fantasy football. I spent hours looking over the hundreds of thousands of names and rankings on the web, but I really couldn’t make any sense of draft strategy. I got that having good RB’s on your team was a must, but beyond that I was flying blind.
After years of playing fantasy football I have realized that the reason most people tend to stick away from general drafting strategy is that no one has this game figured out yet, which is probably what makes the game so fun. I’ve read in multiple columns/books how fantasy football is more like sex, whereas fantasy baseball is like a marriage. The implication being that being good at fantasy football isn’t all that hard, on the other hand, it takes a certain level of commitment and dedication to be a good fantasy baseball player. Well I love fantasy football because it is a game where basically, you draft your players, set your lineup once a week, and enjoy the games. It’s much more hands-off than fantasy baseball where you are always micro-managing your roster. By the time you get to the end of a the year in fantasy baseball you are about ready to blow your brains out. It truly is a war of attrition.
Of course fantasy baseball is a game where skill plays into the game almost 100 percent of the time; in fantasy football, skill probably makes up 75-percent, and the rest is just plain dumb luck. This makes fantasy football easier for newbies, but much harder to master. I liken the game to poker, you have to minimize your risk, try to account for that 25-percent of luck in the game, and you do that by drafting a team with solid anchor players and guys with high upside.
Before Chad and I get into our rankings here are five tips I have for anyone looking for some help going into their drafts.
And whatever you do, do not trust this man.
1) Don’t fall into trends! I mean it, this year the big thing seems to be that the tried and true “draft a running back in the first two rounds” strategy has fallen out of vogue with some of the fantasy experts. They argue that with more teams going to running back by committee offenses that there are fewer stud running backs in the draft than ever before. I completely agree with the notion that there are fewer great running backs in the league, but I think that is a reason to draft them in the first two rounds, not a reason to skip on one in order to get a great WR. There’s nothing worse than waiting to the third round to get your starting running back and have to stare Thomas Jones or Earnest Graham in the face while the timer ticks down to zero.
2) Draft three running backs in the first five rounds. Most leagues these days allow you to have two running backs as well as a flex option where you can also start a running back. If you can draft three startable running backs in the first five rounds you will have an advantage over anyone in your league who is forced to start a receiver in that spot, the reason, running backs score points more consistently than WR’s. Running backs touch the rock more than WR’s, and there is nothing worse than when a WR gets few or no looks in a game, especially when you were counting on the WR as your flex. Depth at running back is crucial to success in fantasy, and the earlier you stack up on depth, the easier the draft becomes.
3) Rookie running backs make great sleepers. It happens every year, one or two rookie running backs will have big seasons. This year there is a rather large list of rookie running backs that could put up some good to great fantasy numbers: Darren McFadden, Jonathon Stewart, Rashard Mendenhall, Felix Jones, Kevin Smith, and Matt Forte, just to name a few. If you can get grab a couple of these guys in the seventh, eighth and ninth round, do so.
4) Diversify your information. A lot of people can fall into the trap of buying one or two fantasy magazines and come up with all of their info from that limited amount of information. Don’t be that guy. Make sure that you are constantly checking to see how players injuries are coming along, how the rookies are performing, and how every positional battle is going. These days you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to get up-to-date information on a guy, all you have to do is google his name then hit the news key.
5) The season does not end with the draft. While it’s true that in fantasy football the team you draft is pretty much the team you are going to be rolling with for the whole season, it’s the little FA pickups and trades you make that make a champion. Last year, my friend Kristan did not have a startable QB, but instead of panicking and making a dumb trade, she showed some patience, picked up Derek Anderson, and ended up winning the league.
All right, enough of me rambling on, let’s get to the rankings!
QUARTERBACKS
1. Tom Brady (New England Patriots) – Yeah, yeah, Tom Brady is the man. He broke the single season passing record last year and made almost every defense look absolutely foolish in the process, with the exception of the Super Bowl, of course. While I think Brady will have a great season this year, I’d be willing to bet a finsky (Editors note: aka Chad – apparently this is a $5 bill in Justin’s language…I guess living on the farm for 21 years kept me from learning things like this…) that he won’t be able to reproduce last years staggering numbers, just look at what happened to Manning after he broke the single season TD record.
Sorry time, but you are to rich for my blood.
(Note of Interest – I would never draft a QB in the first round. Even with Brady’s record breaking season, you still get better value by drafting a RB here and getting your QB later. The reason, the difference between RB’s in the first and seventh round are not nearly as large as the difference in the RB you get in the first and seventh round respectively.)
2. Peyton Manning (Indianapolis Colts) – In years past I would never feel tentative about putting Manning in the top three QB’s in fantasy, but this year is a bit different. There are swirling rumors that Manning has had another surgery on his knee, and Tony Dungy has yet to refute these rumors. Look, even if Manning only misses a game or two, you are losing a rather large amount of his overall value because, as many former Manning owners have learned, his numbers really fall off come playoff time in fantasy. That all said, Manning is still the best all-around QB in the league, and if he is healthy, he will produce. Just make sure to pay attention to his injury status when it’s time to draft.
3. Drew Brees (New Orleans Saints) -Last year before our friends league draft Chad and I argued who would have the better year, Drew Brees or Tom Brady. I argued on the side of Brees while Chad harped Brady’s praises. I think we all knew how that one turned out. Of course, Brees finished the year very strong and with the addition of Jeremy Shockey should have an even better year this year than the breakout year he had two years ago.
4. Tony Romo (Dallas Cowboys) – Talk about a guy with weapons. Last year Romo showed that he was one of the league’s elite quarterbacks by throwing for 4,200 yards and 36 TD’s. Romo almost has too many weapons with Owens, Witten, Marion Barber and rookie running back Felix Jones. The only reason I have Brees above Romo is because I think Dallas won’t have to throw as much as the Saints this year.
5. “Big” Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers)- I was genuinely shocked by how well “Big” Ben played last year. Not only did he bounce back from an awful 06′ season in which he almost died twice, but he also was able to overcome being one of the most sakced QB’s in the league en route to a 3,500 yard, 30 TD season. This year I think Willie Parker will be able to get more than two TD’s and rookie RB Rashard Mendenhall will also get a few look sin the red zone, brining down Roethlisberger’s numbers a tad. I’m still pretty high on him this year.
6. Carson Palmer (Cincinnati Bengals) – Last year was a bit of down year for Palmer, not to mention the Bengals franchise, but Carson was still able to throw for over 4,000 yards. Pre-season injuries to Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzedah should raise some red flags, but I suspect both will be ready for the start of the season. What really worries me about the Bengals’ offense is the fact that they don’t have true number one running back right now, so their offense isn’t going to be very balanced. On that other hand, if INT’s don’t hurt you in your league, this could be a benefit.
7. Derek Anderson (Cleveland Browns) -I’ll be real honest here, I feel pretty sketchy about the Browns this year. In 2007 the Browns were one of the most exciting teams in the NFL to watch. They do have tons of talent with guys like Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow catching passes and Jamal Lewis carrying the rock, but they have looked awful in the preseason so far. I know preseason games aren’t suppose to mean anything, but when Derek Anderson got knocked in their second preseason game, I started worrying. The Browns get Dallas and Pittsburgh to open up the season, and if Anderson gets knocked out again, expect Brady Quinn to take the reigns of that team.
8. Jay Cutler (Denver Broncos) -Cutler really started to put things together in the second half of last year throwing 12 TD’s to just 6 picks, and over 1,800 yards. Cutler has a great arm, but he’s missing his deep threat partner Brandon Marshall for at least two games to start the season. Damn you Marshall, couldn’t you “make it rain” in the privacy of your own home? Either way Cutler is a QB on the rise, and could breakout this year.
9. Brett Favre (New York Jet’s) -Consider this the anti-homer pick because, believe me, I don’t necassarilly want to put Favre over guys like Hassleback and McNabb, but looking at the rosters I really have no choice. The Jets spent over 100 million dollars beefing up their offensive line in the off-season, ensuring Favre will be able to keep up his consecutive games streak, and Jericho Cotchery/Laveranues Coles should great options for Favre in 08′.
10. David Garrard ( Jacksonville Jaguars)- This one may come as a bit of a shocker, but I really like David Garrard this year. Last year Garrard only threw 3 INT’s all year, that’s pretty fantastic. He also had the second highest Minimum Expected Value of all quarter backs in the NFL. Which basically means besides Tom Brady you could expect Garrard to at least get as much or more points on his bad weeks than any other QB in the league. He’s nothing if not solid, and he’s only going to get better.
(Note of Interest -If you want to see how MEV works, check it out over at thefantasyfootballguys.com. They have MEV’s for ever player you will be looking at on draft day.)
Sleeper – Kurt Warner (Arizona Cardinals) -If I told you that there would be a QB that would fall to the ninth or tenth round that threw for 3,400 yards and over 20 TD’s last year you’d probably call me crazy, but that’s exactly what Warner did last year. He was just named the Cardinals’ starting quarterback, and if he can stay healthy, (and that’s a big if) he has the weapons at wide reciever to be a top ten fantasy QB in 08′.
(Note of Interest – Mcnabb and Hassleback -Yeah, I realize I left these two guys out of my top ten, I just don’t see them having great years. They are both on the decline and both of their teams are having major injury problems. Bobby Engram is out for a while in Seattle and Kevin Curtis is riding the bench in Philly. I could be wrong here, but hey, that’s the nature of this game.)
RUNNING BACKS
1. LaDainian Tomlinson (San Diego Chargers) – LT is still the man, plain and simple, but if you are still reading this column you already knew that. He should be drafted first in every league, even if you start two QB’s, hell I’d still take him in the fifth round if broke both of his legs tomorrow. That’s how good this guys is!
LT... he's the man.
2. Brian Westbrook (Philadelphia Eagles) – You can have AP and his single game rushing record, I’ll take Brian Westbrook’s overall game over him any day. The thing with Westbrook is that he IS Philly’s offense. I mean the guy caught 90 balls last year, 90! That’s more catches than what Terrell Owens or Braylon Edwards had last year, and this guy is a running back! People who say that Westbrook can’t stay healthy haven’t been paying very good attention. Brian has played in 15 games in each of the last two seasons.
3. Adrian Peterson (Minnesota Vikings) -Of course if someone does take Brian Westbrook with the second pick, I’d be more than happy to have his single game rushing record ability. It’s tough to explain Peterson’s blend of power and agility, it’s really something you have to see for yourself. Remember, Peterson was able to rush for over 1,300 yards with only 238 carries, expect both of those numbers to go up this year. Minnesota loves to run that football and control the clock, and you know Chester Taylor won’t get as many carries as he did last year. In a few years we could be looking at the new king of fantasy football… if he doesn’t get hurt… knocks on wood violently.
4. Steven Jackson (St. Louis Rams) -I consider Steven Jackson to be a stronger, slightly less agile version of Brian Westbrook. Jackson’s biggest problem isn’t the fact that he held out, it’s the fact that his offense line is always hurt and/or bad. Unfortunately we can work with what we have, so if you have the fourth pick be happy to have a guy who can rush for 1,300 hundred yards on any given year, as well as catch somewhere between 70-85 passes.
5. Joseph Addai (Indianapolis Colts) -In a lot of ways Addai is the anti-S-Jax. Think about it, Addai is a very good running back who plays on a great team. Jackson is a great running back who plays on a bad team. That said, I expect Addai to score more TD’s than S-Jax, but get considerably fewer total yards. It’s the curse of playing for the Colts, there just aren’t enough balls to go around (go ahead, you can laugh at that one).
6. Frank Gore (San Francisco 49ers) -If you scroll down a couple of posts you’ll see that I’ve already talked about who I’d take with the sixth overall pick in fantasy draft. I went with Frank Gore in the six hole even over the likes of Tom Brady. Why would I do such a thing? Well you can read that post, or you can read the Magic Formula, and all will be explained. As for ranking Gore six among running backs, again I like a guy who can catch passes out of the backfield. I don’t care how my running backs get their yards as long as they get them. In a year where Gore struggled he was still able to get 1,500 yards, and I just can’t conceive how the Niners could be any worse than they were last year.
7. Clinton Portis (Washington Redskins)- Portis is the last guy in my top ten who has a great chance of catching over 50 passes. Washington is a run first, run second, and maybe pass on third team, so the only thing that is going to stop Portis form getting the ball is going to be injuries. I like the fact that Jim Zorn is now the coach of the Redskins, because he likes to spread the ball around a lot, which should take some pressure off Clinton and help him get his average yards/carry up. I wouldn’t worry about the ‘Skins spreading the ball around too much though, Portis is still the best option they’ve got.
8. Marion Barber (Dallas Cowboys) - Here’s a secret for you. I would love to have Marion Barber with any pick after seven, and I could make a strong argument for putting him above Portis in my rankings. Barber is the kind of running back that makes the opposing defenses want to take the day off. He is one of the most punishing running backs that I’ve ever seen, which is something that comes in handy when the Cowboys get into the red zone. Sure Barber’s never rushed for over a thousand yards, but he was always backing up Julius Jones. Now Barber’s the starter, and despite the Cowboys drafting Felix Jones this year, Barber will get over 250 carries. That’s bad news for defenses around the league, but great news for fantasy owners.
9. Larry Johnson (Kansas City Chiefs) -I’m almost positive that anyone who drafted LJ early last year is probably going to take a pass on him in the first round this year. Which is great because it could mean that he will drop to the second round in this years draft. Yes, Larry Johnson struggled to start the season, but when you look at the Chiefs schedule to start the season last year: Houston, Chicago, Minnesota, San Diego, Jacksonville, you can understand how a running back could struggle. Just when LJ was starting to pick up steam during the mid-season he broke his foot, something that you can’t really plan for. Perhaps his injury was a blessing in disguise, he was getting way to many carries over the last couple of years, perhaps it was devine intervention.
10. Maurice Jones-Drew (Jacksonville Jaguars) -The news out of Jaguars’ camp is that MJD sprained his ankle during his last pre-season game, but the sprain isn’t serious. Let’s hope so, because if Jones-Drew is healthy to start the year the sky is the limit for the 23 year old. Last year Fred Taylor was the feature back for Jacksonville so MJD had to take what he was given. Even with his limited touches Maurice was able to get around 1,200 total yards and nine TD’s. I’m thinking that 32 year old Taylor won’t be able to keep up his production and MJD will be the guy to step up for the Jags, a team that runs the ball as much or more than any other team in the league.
Sleeper – Ricky (Smoke Dog) Williams (Miami Dolphins) -You talk about your deep sleepers, this guy finally woke up from his Mary-Jane filled slumber and got himself back into NFL shape (Being millions of dollars in debt will do that to a guy). Rumors are that Ricky has been named the starting RB in Miami over Ronnie Brown, who is less than a year out from a torn ACL. If anyone can smoke up (I mean) shake up a draft, it’s Ricky.
WIDE RECIEVERS
1. Randy Moss (New England Patriots) –I can remember a day, not so long ago, when Randy Moss was playing like a dog in Oakland. How he got away with this is beyond me, remember how the media crucified Vince Carter when he started to mail it in for the Raptors? Yes, I may just be a bit bitter because I drafted him two year go, only to see him completely underperform, but I’ll admit that he is the class of the NFL at WR.
Oh the memories...
2. Terrell Owens (Dallas Cowboys) –Say what you will about Owens’ antics over the years, but the guy just keeps on putting up big numbers. Over the last three years Owens has averaged over 1,200 yards receiving and 14 touchdowns. He may be a bit of a pain in the arse sometimes, but he get’s the job done.
3. Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis Colts) –My dad was lucky enough to pick him up in the third round of his league’s draft. Now that’s some great value. Some may be worried that Manning’s injury will hamper Wayne’s numbers a bit, but don’t fret, Wayne is the kind of talent that could succeed even if Kyle Orton was throwing to him… actually, I’m not sure on that one.
4. Braylon Edwards (Cleveland Browns) – I’m not sure why it is that third year receivers always seem to have break out years, but I’m not complaining. Edwards has all the tolls of a number one fantasy receiver, he’s tall, fast, and plays on a team that loves to throw the football. Kellen Winslow does a good job of deflecting double teams off of Edwards, while I’m not sure he can repeat his amazing 07’ campaign, he should still be one of the best WR’s in the league.
5. Andre Johnson (Houston Texans) –Andre Johnson is just dominating. There really is no other way to describe him. Sure, injuries have cost Johnson in the past, but when the guy is healthy he is the most imposing physical specimen at the WR position in all of the NFL. In little more than half of a season last year Johnson was able to catch for over 850 yards and snag eight TD’s as well. This could be the year where we see Johnson go 1,600 yards and 16 touchdowns, as long as the guy can stay healthy.
6. Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona Cardinals) – There’s nothing like being a stud receiver who never has to worry about double teams. I was honestly a bit worried about Fitz having to deal with Matt Leinart’s shotty play, but now that Kurt Warner has been named starting quarterback, I have no worries. I’m a big fan of receivers who play on teams that have two great receivers, and Fitzgerald definitely fits into that category.
7. Marques Colston (New Orleans Saints)– Remember a little bit earlier when I was talking about third year receivers breaking out, well guess what year of his career Colston is in? You guessed it. Colston started last year slow, kind of like the entire Saints organization, but he came on strong in the second half and still finished the year out as a top ten receiver. The addition of Jeremy Shockey to the Saints already potent offense should free up Colston a bit, and you can expect him to have a big year.
8. TJ Houshmandzadeh (Cincinnati Bengals) –TJ “Whosyourmamma” has gone from being a inside fantasy joke, to one of the most consistent WR’s in the league. In the last three years his stats have gone up consistently and last year he even outshone his counterpart “Ocho Cinco” by getting over 1,100 receiving yards and twelve touchdowns. I guess the joke is now on anyone who doesn’t draft Housh this year.
9. Santonio Holmes (Pittsburgh Steelers) - In an attempt to keep up my third year receiver break-out trend I give you Santonio Holmes. He was the long ball threat for the Steelers last year, Holmes was still a bit of a wild card when it came to consistent play. I think this year is the year where we see just what Santonio is capable of, especially with Hines Ward on the decline, it shout be time for Holmes to shine… a little rhyme for you there.
10. Plaxico Burress (New York Giants) –Not only was Plex an integral piece in the Giant’s Super Bowl team last year, he also put up a career high in TDs with 12, and he did all this dealing with injuries for most of the year. With Shockey moving out of town, Plex becomes an even bigger target for Eli to throw to this year. I think Burress will have a very solid season and is probably the last guy I would be happy with as a number one receiver on my team.
Sleeper – DeSean Jackson (Philadelphia Eagles) –This guy almost gets my sleeper pick by default, it seems like Philly’s WR corps is a bit battered coming into the year, and Jackson has looked great in the preseason. Here’s a guy you can pick up with one of your last picks and be extremely happy with whatever numbers he can produce.
TIGHT ENDS
1. Antonio Gates (San Diego Chargers) –It’s almost boring to watch how good this guy is, unfortunately for me, he just isn’t quite good enough to take with the high pick that he almost always demands. That said, if you are going to roll the dice on a TE early, he’s probably your best bet.
2. Tony Gonzalez (Kansas City Chiefs) –Yeah, he may have fallen off a bit, but he’s still in the elite class of NFL tight ends, last year he lead all TEs in receptions, and while he may have only caught five TD’s, he is still the Chief’s best option once they get into the red zone.
3. Jason Witten (Dallas Cowboys) –Witten is probably the second best receiving option for the Cowboy’s after TO. Not only will the guy run for TD’s with his helmet off, he also has the kind of skill to get over 1,000 yards receiving and 7 TD’s, they are two great tastes that taste good together.
4. Kellen Winslow (Cleveland Browns) – It’s amazing to see how much better a guy can play when he isn’t involved in a catastrophic motorcycle accident. I suspect Winslow will put up numbers very close to Witten this year, but I don’t think he will get into the end zone quite as much.
5. Dallas Clark (Indianapolis Colts) –What can I say, I love anyone who Peyton Manning is throwing the ball to.
Sleeper – Ben Watson (New Enlgand Patriots) – What can I say, I love anyone who Tom Brady is throwing the ball to.
Reminder: Chad will be posting his rankings tomorrow, so make sure to check that out. Good luck with your drafts everybody!
