To be an honest writer, you have to look back into the past every once in a while, and take responsibility for what you put on paper. Many times you’re writing about the future, and don’t think anything of it when what you predict doesn’t come true.
Homie don’t play that. A man has got to step up, stick to his opinion, and admit mistakes when they arise. So I’m going back to Justin and mine’s Terry’s Tire World IV Draft Recap to see where I pegged things right, and where I was Oh-So-Wrong…
To begin – I currently reside in second place in our league, and that can be directly linked to the way I drafted. I had one of my worst drafts ever in a fantasy baseball league, which has led me to only having 12 of the 21 players I drafted remaining on my team. Some of those guys have been complete busts, some have bounced back after I dropped them – but I have no regrets…
What the hell am I talking about – I have lots of regrets…
“Chad: Ya know, in hindsight I really didn’t like where I was positioned. 4th is a solid spot, but imagine if you were at the bottom of the first round and got Ryan Howard, then took Prince Fielder at the start of Round 2…that team would be scarrrrry! I don’t know what I’m going to do this year? I took Jose Reyes at No. 4 overall to play SS for me. I’ve never won a league without Derek Jeter playing there. I already miss my team captain. God I sound like a Yankees fan…”
4 months later…If you had both Howard and Fielder, you’d be batting roughly .250 with 50 HR, 110R, 150 RBI’s. The batting average is terrible, but you would sacrifice it for the other three numbers. It would be 1/3 of the homers that our current HR leader (me) has for less than 1/4 of your team. That is pretty scary. As for taking Reyes with the 4th overall pick, it was perfect: he’s the fourth ranked batter according to ESPN fantasy rankings, and has led my team in runs and steals, all while compiling a .300 average and 12 HR’s. Glad I didn’t take a stab at DJ. The .285 average and 59 R’s just isn’t up to his normal standards at this point. Plus, he only has six homers and five steals.
Oh. To make this interesting, did I mention I was going to break down what Justin said as well? Whoops – musta forgot to mention that. Hell, he doesn’t even know yet. So shhhhhhhh! Don’t tell him!
“Justin: I don’t know what’s going on this year with short stops going in round one so much. We had three short stops go: Ramirez, Reyes and Rollins. I opted to go with Matt Holliday. Here’s a guy who will help me in four categories. You can find steals later in the draft. I have to go with power guys early and you just don’t really get that with a short stop. I thought Ryan Braun going at 10 was a little early. I mean we’ve only seen him play about a year in the bigs and he’s already going in round one? Am I crazy or is that a little early?”
4 months later…Yes Justin, you were crazy. Taking Ryan Braun at 10 was nuts. He should’ve gone at five! .300 average, 27 HR’s 72 RBI’s, and oh-by-the-way, nine steals. Those numbers have been augmented by his hot July, in which he’s hit four homers in the last five days. Braun has been worth every dime. As for Justin’s pick, Matt Holliday has been tough to argue with. .344 average, 62 R’s, 17 HR’s, 60 RBI, and 14 SB’s. And those numbers include a stint on the disabled list. The current ESPN.com player rater has him ranked as the 6th best hitter so far. Justin’s spot in the first round: sixth.
“Chad: I agree completely on the Braun point. Our sample size of him is miniscule. Yes, he had a fabulous season last year, but does that make him a first rounder? He’s not even the most productive fantasy player on his team! As for the shortstops, I can understand why people want those guys early. They are “5 tool” players when it comes to fantasy baseball. And it seems like every year the guy I’m always finding myself trying to trade for is Jose Reyes. He’s got something to prove this year, and that’s why I grabbed him. Answering the question on whether or not you’re crazy…the answer is a resounding yes, and so is Hanley Ramirez going in round 1.”
4 months later…So, we were both wrong about Braun AND I was wrong on Hanley Ramirez. He’s been phenomenal as well. I’ll make this statement now – I promise to never judge a player on his defense ever again. Are we clear on this?
“Justin: Oh no you didn’t! People have really hopped on the Hanley train this year even though the Marlins lost Miguel Cabrera, but I still think he warrants a first round pick. He will get you 25 home runs, 50 steals, 125 runs and around 80 RBIs, not to mention that .320 batting average. Do I think he warrants the second overall pick in the draft, no, but I think he’s a first round talent.”
4 months later…I take that back. Both of us were wrong about Hanley…
“Chad: I’ll admit, I think I made a mistake with (Brandon) Phillips (in Round 3). Overvalued because of his standout year in 2007, and he could potentially come back down to earth a la Derrek Lee a couple years ago. You know my opinion on pitchers in the first five rounds. It’s just a bad idea, especially in a head-to-head league. Any kind of pitching injury takes exponentially longer to heal than a position player, and you can’t afford to have guys in your Top-5 go down for that long…”
4 months later…Well, I’m always right about pitchers – you just can’t trust the bastards. Phillips in Round 3? Turns out I’m not as stupid as I thought I was at the time. Well, I probably am, but not in fantasy baseball lore. That’s another story though…
“Justin: I think it’s because we play in a league where the owners know better than to reach on a starting pitcher. In round four another thing happened that I know aggravates you, two catchers, Russell Martin and Victor Martinez came of the board. I didn’t fall into that trap though – I took Aramis Ramirez, who should be back to his 30 HR hitting ways, while you took Manny Ramirez, who also should come back strong after a relatively disappointing year.”
4 months later…Right and right. The two catchers going in Round 4 was foolish. Martinez has been hurt most of the season, and Martin wasn’t worthy of a fourth round pick – considering the catcher I took 11 rounds later is beating him in two of the five offensive categories. Yes, there is position scarcity for catchers – no doubt about it. But the difference between guys one and ten isn’t worth taking the guy in the Top 5 rounds.
“Chad: Manny in a contract year had me licking my lips when my pick came up. And really, it’s a pseudo contract year because it’s a team option. Nonetheless, if he wants his money, he needs to hit 35 homers again. I’ve had Ramirez in a league each of the last two years, but he’s just gotten too streaky for my liking. Plus, his power numbers are down for some reason. I guess I watch him too much, and pick on him a lot. One catcher coming off the board is ludicrous, and two is even more mind-boggling. I’m glad people do it, because it keeps them from stealing guys I want…”
4 months later…So much for the “psuedo” contract year – it’s a full-blown one because of what has transpired in the last week. The Red Sox are even trying to trade Manny before the deadline. It would completely derail their hope of winning though, so I doubt it would happen. Their return on investment would be 30 cents on the dollar at best. Can you tell I hate taking catchers early?
“Chad: I think Huston Street going in round 8 was a reach. He’s a huge injury concern, and won’t get a lot of save opportunities because of the team the A’s are fielding this year. I don’t even know if they could win the Pacific Coast League title (that’s Triple-A for those of you that aren’t…in-the-know). Francisco Liriano and John Lackey both went in round 10, and those two picks could go either way. Liriano is coming off TJ surgery, but hasn’t thrown with the electricity he did two years ago, and Lackey having arm problems is no bueno for the Angels. But if they can both get back to their old forms, those could be two steals talent wise…you just won’t get the full-year value out of them. Anything stand out to you?”
4 months later…Yea, me being right only about 50% of the time so far is standing out to me. Street ended up being a bad choice in the 8th, yet the A’s were right on the heels of the Angels up until they traded Rich Harden before the All-Star break. Since coming off the injury, Lackey has been pretty awesome, with an 8-2 record and a 3.02 ERA, and that includes his current streak of 22IP, 20ER he’s got going while pitching through a “dead arm.” As for Liriano, he’s been lighting it up as well…in Triple-A. The Twins are clearly holding him back to keep him from becoming a free agent another year down the road – which could come back to bite them if they fall out of the race.
“Justin: We saw a lot of the quality closers come off the board in these rounds. There are a lot of experts who preach to not pay for saves, but why not? Closers get you more than saves, they also help to get your ERA and Whip down and will get you Ks as well. I opted to draft four closers in our league, Saito, Cordero (Francisco and Chad) and Hoffman. What’s your stance on closers?”
4 months later…My stance on closers is if you’re going to pick them, make sure you get good ones. Saito is hurt, Chad Cordero is hurt, Hoffman has sucked, and Francisco Cordero has been mediocre. I can’t say I did much better. Mariano has been amazing, but J.J. Putz has been awful, and the departed Eric Gagne made me gag.
“Justin: Carlos Marmol going in the 16th surprised me. I think he’d be a good guy to grab at the end of the draft, but I don’t know what he gets you as long as he’s not the Cub’s closer. I love the Nick Swisher and Josh Hamilton picks because they will more than likely have great years for their respective teams, and I grabbed Jim Thome in the 12th because he was the last guy on the board who I thought had a chance to hit 40 home runs. I see you also took a chance on Pedro in the 11th, which I think could be a make or break guy for your team, do you agree?”
4 months later…I’m not even gonna touch the Marmol subject. When Swisher got taken, I called Luke and might have threatened to slash his tires for taking the guy I had circled on my draft board. Thank God I didn’t take him – he wouldn’t have been worth it. Hamilton, on the other hand: well, you know the story. He’s been downright off-the-hook!! We won’t talk about Pedro either, I don’t wanna talk about it!
“Justin: The two picks I love would be are Joba Chamberlain in the 19th and Pat Burrell in the last round. Having Joba on your team could really help you down the stretch when he becomes a starter. The guy has some of the most dominating stuff I’ve ever seen and definitely worth a late pick, if for nothing else than stashing away for half of the year. Pat Burrell is a guy who can get you 30 HRs and 100 RBI, now that’s value! As far as the worst two picks of the last six rounds I’m going to have to go with Johnny Damon and Homer Bailey. Both have been dumped already for better players. I drafted Damon, but decided it would be wiser to roll the dice on a guy like Rich Harden. Here’s a guy who has the tools to be a top twenty pitcher if he stays healthy. It’s a big if, but he was a waiver wire pick-up, so I don’t mind the risk. How about you?”
4 months later…Correct on the first two counts J. Chamberlain and Burrell were well worth the wait considering what they’ve done. Also right on about the the two bad selections. Homer Bailey’s ERA is somewhere near Mars, and Damon is hurt every third day. Harden was worth the risk, and if the Cubs would get him some freakin run support, he would be a Top 60 pick.
“Chad: …Yunel Escobar could be a 20th round steal if he plays as well for the Braves as he did in limited time last year…. The other great pick is Rick Ankiel. If he plays every day, he could easily hit 35 homers. He hit 43 in 2007 in Triple-A and the majors combined. Will his plate discipline get him a starting role though? Still, great value. The one pick I didn’t like was Evan Longoria. He’s going to be a GREAT fantasy player, but he’s going to start the year in Triple-A because of monetary reasons. You have to be playing in the majors to have fantasy value, and we don’t carry minor league spots on our rosters. I do like my Johnny Cueto pick in 20th round. He’s being compared to Pedro at his age because of his 5′10” frame and electric stuff. He could be a potential ace if they make the commitment to him on the major league level.”
4 months later…Escobar wasn’t a steal – he’s been just what a 20th round player should be: a roster filler. Ankiel was an 18th round steal though. .280 average and 22 homers for an outfielder is a darn good pick. Boy was I wrong on Longoria. He’s turned out to be a professional hitter that is skilled beyond his years. Johnny Cueto was great in his first four or five starts, then pretty much crapped out after that. Should have traded him when I had the chance. I did, however, pick up Edinson Volquez in the first couple of weeks – so I played my cards pretty well.
“Chad: I think I have a Top-3 team. Outside of the two of us, the best draft award would go to Craig Heckman. His team is going to hit homers, score runs, and get loads of RBIs, and since he rotates his pitchers through every week (a strategy that I despise) he can afford to let Lackey sit on the pine until he’s healed. He’s got a good team. Nobody had a bad draft, except for the auto-picked teams, but I was a little surprised at Luke’s team. He’s a yearly front-runner, but I’m not a huge fan of his team. Curtis Granderson is a guy that went too high because of his non-fantasy numbers (20-20-20-20 season last year – but only two of those categories count towards fantasy). Nick Markakis is a solid pick, but will they even bother pitching to him with no one else in that lineup that’s going to hurt you? Bannister and Dempster are a bit confusing to me as well. Those are late-round picks with little upside to me. He’s crafty though, and his teams always perform better than they look on paper. Your thoughts?”
4 months later…Top 3 team: check. Craig having a good team: check check (he’s in first place). Luke struggling: check (although his team is coming around – currently in 7th. Bannister sucking: check (5.70 ERA). Dempster having no upside: cccccccccrap. He’s been awesome, I screwed that one up hardcore.
“Justin: One of the big goals of this year’s team for me was becoming more well-rounded. I’ve always focused on power in the past, usually at the cost of speed… My favorite team would probably go to the newcomer Ryan Thomas who has a core of: David Wright, Vlad, Corey Hart, Roy Holladay, Sabathia, Jenks and K-Rod. He should be tough to beat this year. I think Ryan Fergueson, another of the newcomers is going to have a rough year, he is very weak at closer and the only hitters I really like on his team are A-Rod, Soriano and Martin. I think he may struggle this year.”
4 months later…After predicing well for most of this draft recap, Justin was wrong on both of these picks. RT sits in 8th, and Ferguson is in 3rd place.
RECAP: I think the moral of the story is pretty obvious here. Don’t, under any circumstances, listen to Justin or myself when it comes to predicting how our guys will do in fantasy baseball. BUT, if someone has a gun to your head, call me before him!
