My Mancrush X2
LT and AP.
For the millions of men and women who play fantasy football these initials inspire joy and hope in us all. For those you of lucky enough to draft one of these two, you better get some sports tickets now to see them this year, because they are truly freaks of nature. Unfortunately most of us won’t have the opportunity to draft LaDainian Tomlinson or Adrian Peterson because they will undoubtably go 1-2 in almost every draft this year. Still if you have the third through fifth pick in the draft you still don’t have much to worry about. There are still guys like Brian Westbrook, Joseph Addai and Stephen Jackson on the board.
Brian Westbrook has proved to be the best all-around running back in the NFL. He was once considered an injury liability but over the last two years he has played in 15 games and last year he gained over 2,000 total yards and scored 12 touch downs, that’s what I call production.
Then there is Joseph Addai, the Indianapolis Colts (um) workhorse, who did not fall victim to the sophomore slump last year. Addai racked up 15 TD’s last year and rushed for over 1,000 yards. The Colts are always a lock to be a high scoring offense, which will give Addai ample opportunities to march into the promised land.
I remember last year when Steven Jackson got hurt, mostly because everyone who had him in fantasy wouldn’t let me forget it. Despite the time Jackson missed because of his torn groin (ouch), Jackson was still able to rush for over 1,000 yards. He also caught 38 passes for 271 yards, which isn’t bad considering he only played in 12 games. If Jackson can stay healthy look for him to put up numbers much in the same vein as Brian Westbrook.
So there you have it: LT,AP, Westbrook, Addai, and Jackson; this will be what most fantasy draft boards will look like this year after the first five picks. If you are lucky enough to have one of these picks you are probably set, but if you have the sixth pick you are probably scratching your head and are wondering what you should do.
Just Say No?
This is the conundrum that people like my dad face. In other words, I’ve been asked a lot about what the best move is in this situation. AJ Mass wrote an articleabout this recently at the WWL and pointed out that this may be the year where people should abandon the tried and true “RB/RB” strategy and take Tom Brady with the pick. His argument is pretty sound, Tom Brady did have the most points in all of fantasy last year (and it wasn’t even close), and it would be crazy to take a guy like Randy Moss that early. But for some reason I can’t accept taking a QB in the first round. It’s just not me. So lets dig a little deeper and see what we can find in these murky waters.
Just to be fair I’ll admit that I’m that guy who has taken running backs back to back in the first couple of rounds every year since I started playing fantasy football ten years ago. Oh there was that one year where I deviated from my plan and drafted Randy Moss in the second round, even though he was playing for a terrible Raiders team. Let’s just say that I got what I deserved that year, Moss had a terrible season and I learned my lesson. There’s a reason why you take two running backs in the first two rounds. There is a limited supply of top-tier running backs in the NFL, and unless you are playing in some kind of homemade league, you are going to need at least two of them.
In the league I play in we are allowed to have a third RB via the RB/WR slot. So I try to get three quality running backs in the first five rounds, something that is almost impossible to do if I pick a quarterback in the first round. This makes drafting Tom Brady in the first round almost impossible. There is a strong argument for grabbing Brady in the first round, but think twice before you do snatch him with the six spot. Yes, Brady did beat all other fantasy players last year with a staggering 378 points, but remember he had to throw 50 touchdowns to get there. When Peyton Manning broke the previous TD record with 49 in 2004, people went nuts and spent a top five pick on him in fantasy. When Manning followed his record breaking year up by throwing 28 touchdowns people screamed foul. Well sometimes you get what you deserve.
Manning threw less touchdown passes in 2005 because of injuries to his receivers, opposing defenses keying on the pass game, and the Colts figuring out that they didn’t have to keep piling on at the end of the season when the Colts had already captured a playoff spot. I think we’ll see Tom Brady come back to Earth in much the same way. Yes, Brady still has Moss to throw to, which makes anything possible, but if the Patriots are smart they have learned the importance of having a balanced offense and resting their players at the end of the season. This means you’re not going to get the same kind of production out of Brady that you saw from him last year. He’ll still be one of the best quarterbacks in fantasy football, but I don’t think he’ll be worth a top six pick.
Now that we’ve subtracted Brady from the equation let’s look at what we have left to work with. In a perfect world someone will want to take Brady with a top five pick, in which case you absolutely snag either Jackson or Westbrook, one of which will probably be there for you. If not you are looking at the likes of Frank Gore, Clinton Portis, Marshawn Lynch, or Marion Barber. It’s not a very pretty list I know, but let’s go through it and see if we can find any keepers.
Suspect Number 1
We’ll start with Frank Gore because I’m a big 49ers fan and I also happened to pick Gore fourth overall last year. Gore struggled a bit last year due to a failed passing attack and a weak defense, two things that will kill any team’s running game. Well the 49ers have a new offensive coordinator, the enigmatic Mike Martz, who is sure to capitalize on one of Gore’s most underrated abilities, that being catching the ball out of the backfield. Last year Gore caught 53 passes for 436 yards and a touchdown. With Martz calling the plays, expect those numbers to go up, way up. If Gore can keep up his numbers on the ground (Gore still rushed for 1,100 yards last year) and catch a few more passes, you could be looking at a guy as versatile as Westbrook or Jackson. On the other hand, he still has Alex Smith taking the snaps, so you definitely have to balance out potential with the talent surrounding him.
Suspect Number 2
Next up on the list we have Clinton Portis who ran for 1,262 yards last year, caught 47 passes for 369 yards, and scored 11 TD’s in 2007. Those are solid numbers for a back who was supposed to be an injury risk and was dealing with a wounded offensive line. Much like Gore, Portis is playing for a new offensive coordinator (Jim Zorn) who likes to get the ball to his RB via the pass. So you can expect Portis to improve on those 47 catches and perhaps get in the end zone a couple more times.
Suspect Number 3
Although Adrian Peterson got the most press out of all of the rookies last year (and for good reason), let’s not forget about Marshawn Lynch. In his rookie season Lynch was able to rush for over 1,100 yards in just 13 games, and that was despite the fact that Buffalo was going through some serious QB issues. Now that Trent Edwards seems to have secured the starting QB job with the Bills, expect Lynch to be freed up a bit and improve upon his already impressive numbers. Lynch only caught 18 passes last year, which should be a red flag for owners who are looking for their running backs to catch passes, but most running backs improve as a receiver as the years go on. Expect his reception numbers to go up and for him to have a strong sophomore season.
Suspect Number 4
Finally we have Marion Barber, who for the last couple of years has been a wonder for any owner who needed a running back who could get into the endzone for them (Which hopefully is everyone). Dallas let Julius Jones go in the post season, only to draft Felix Jones, and kill fantasy owners dreams of having Barber the only back in town, but it’s still safe to say that MB 3 will get more carries this year and that can only be a good thing as last year Barber had a 4.7 average and 12 TD’s. If I had to say that there is sleeper in the top ten it would definitely be Barber.
So right now you are probably asking, “Justin, I don’t like any of these guys. Why shouldn’t I just take Brady and take my chances in the later rounds?”
That’s a fair question voice in my head, let’s look at some numbers. I’ll be using the projections used by ESPN’s Fantasy magazine if you want to follow along. Let’s throw out a couple of players names and recreate what could possibly happen in the first three rounds. In one column we’ll create a scenario in which Tom Brady is taken with the sixth pick, and then we’ll recreate the scenario where we go with the tried and true RB/RB strategy.
Team Brady RB/RB
Pick 6 = Tom Brady = 311 pts Pick 6 = Frank Gore = 225 pts
Pick 14 = Ryan Grant = 184 pts Pick 14 = Ryan Grant = 184 pts
Pick 26= Brandon Jacobs = 157 pts Pick 26 = Drew Brees = 264 pts
Total = 652 Total = 673
The numbers are pretty close, but you can see how having two strong running backs can make the difference between winning a championship and ending the year in second place. Also keep in mind that during weeks 15,16 and 17, it is entirely possible that Brady will be taking limited snaps. This is the same dilemma that a lot of Manning owners have had to deal with for the last couple of years.
I hope I’ve made my point clear. As much as you may be tempted to grab Brady with the sixth pick, it may be better to stick to your guns. In an NFL where more and more teams are going to RBBC and chose to pass more, it makes getting the elite running backs early even more important. It’s much easier to get a guy like Drew Brees or Ben Roethlisberger in the third or fourth rounds than it is to find a running back that can put up great numbers in later same rounds.
If I was put on the spot I’d probably pick Gore with the sixth pick. I know it seems like Gore is not a very flashy pick, but he has proven that he can put up big time numbers in the past, and with more passes coming his way, he could have a great year. But then who knows, Brady could have a monster season and prove me completely wrong. That’s what makes fantasy sports so unpredictable, which what makes the “RB/RB” so sound. It minimizes your risks early and allows you to take some risks later on in the draft. That’s where taking a chance can pay off, later in the draft, not in the first round.
I hoped this helped those stuck with this tough pick, and I look forward to talking more about fantasy football in the coming weeks.
