The 33% Report (Part 3 – AL East)

(Editor’s Note: This is Part three of a six part series breaking down where all the MLB teams stand 1/3 of the way through the season)

Well folks, we’re briskly moving to the time of year when you start hearing scouts and experts use the phrase “small sample size” less and less, and begin to believe that the slump your star hitter is going through is no longer just a slump or that hot start for a guy may turn into season-long success. How are the stars and the no-namers doing so far in 2008? Let’s just see…

We wrap things up in the American League to check on AL East – where the current landscape is as follows:

Tampa Bay Rays     35-22
Boston Red Sox      35-25
Toronto Blue Jays   31-28
New York Yankees 28-29
Baltimore Orioles   27-29

TAMPA BAY RAYS

Biggest Suprises-

1. 1st Place- Isn’t it obvious? The clear-cut reason why this team is in first place is because they fined people $1 every time someone mistakenly referred to them as the Devil Rays. Now they’ve taken that revenue, and put it back into the team for once! OK, so the real reason they’re in first place is because they finally have some pitching depth at the Major League level that is backing up the young talent that has been showcased at nearly every other position.
2. Troy Percival (CL)- A year ago at this time, Percival wasn’t even on a Major League roster. Now, he’s the closer and clubhouse leader of the team sitting atop the AL East. He’s striking out nearly a hitter every inning, and has led this bullpen back from the depths of hell (sorry, had to work that Devil reference in somwhere – you understand, right?). Having a guy at the end of that bullpen that will finish off a close game more than 80% of the time spurs confidence through the entire team, and it’s showing so far in 2008.

Biggest Disappointments-

1. Carlos Pena (1B)- He came out of nowhere to hit 40+ homers last year, and could very well do it again this year with 10 already on this campaign. But a .221 batting average with 71K’s in 57 games just isn’t going to cut it. Pena needs to scale back the strikeouts and start making more contact if the Rays plan on seeing continued success.
2. Jason Bartlett (SS)- I had trouble finding another guy that really hasn’t been up-to-snuff so far this season, and I have to admit it was pretty tough. Bartlett is a guy that is known almost solely for his defensive ability, being able to track down most everything hit to the left side of the infield and still record an out. But is his defense making up for the fact that he’s a black hole when it comes to batting? His numbers so far in 2008 cry no: .246, 0 HR, 9RBI with a .575 OBP – worst out of any everyday player in the the majors.

BOSTON RED SOX

Biggest Suprises-

1. Jacoby Ellsbury (CF)- There was a reason why the Red Sox were adamant about not parting with Ellsbury and the other guy that is a surprise on this team (see No. 2) in the same trade for Johan Santana. Ellsbury has played phenomenal defense along with batting .287 with a .385 OBP and 27 steals. Those numbers are ridiculous for a guy that hasn’t been in the majors for a full year! And now with David Ortiz gone, Ellsbury’s speed is going to become a necessity for team success.
2. Jon Lester (SP)- What more can you say about this guy. He’s fully recovered from cancer in 2007, and has already thrown a no-hitter so far this season. Lester possesses the rare combination of great stuff along with the mental makeup that could take him to ace status in the future. It’s amazing to think what this man has fought through in such a short amount of time, and he’s proving to the franchise it was a great choice NOT to trade him for Johan Santana.

Biggest Disappointments-

1. David Ortiz (DH)- It’s difficult to call one of the best hitters of the last half-decade a disappointment, especially when the guy has 13 homers thus far. But a near career-low .247 batting average that coincides with a recent wrist injury that will disable him for a month at least makes him a casualty on this team. The Red Sox have become so much more balanced in the past two years that they can last for a little while without Ortiz, but a full month or maybe more is stretching that hypothesis.
2. Mike Timlin (RP)- I’m really reaching here I tell ya. I have to search through rosters just to find guys that are struggling on some of these top teams. Timlin is obviously at the tail end of his career, and was due for a dropoff here in 2008. I’m not to sure a 6.48 ERA qualifies as the downhill slide of your career, however (more like jumping off a cliff). Timlin will either bounce back, or the Red Sox will find someone in the minors that can pitch better.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

Biggest Surprises-

1. The Starters- Everyone knew the Jays had a deep rotation that could be a difference-maker in the this division. But I don’t know that anyone could’ve dreamed of them being this good. The starters have picked up 27 of the teams 31 wins so far this season. I know, you need a good bullpen for the starters to get wins, but these starters are not only pitching well, but they are pitching deep into ballgames, giving the bullpen fewer chances to blow the wins they’ve established. It’s good to see Roy (Doc) Halladay bounce back this year too. He’s easily my favorite pitcher in the majors.
2. BJ Ryan (CL)- Already back from Tommy John surgery last year, Ryan picked up right where he left off after he signed that big free agent contract with Toronto. He averages more than a strikeout per inning, and has just a 1.53 ERA in 18 appearances. It looks like the Jays made a wise buy when they yanked this difference-maker from division foe Baltimore a couple years ago.

Biggest Disappointments-

1. Alex Rios (OF)- The Jays showed Rios the money in the off-season, and Rios has done nothing but prove he was a good long-term investment. He’s hitting just .262 and has 54 K’s in 57 games played so far. He’s currently on pace for nearly 150 strikeouts in 2008, and that would shatter his career-high in that category by nearly 50 punch outs. If the Jays plan on making the next step toward contention in the AL East, they’re going to need premium performances from Rios.
2. The Power Numbers- They dumped Frank Thomas so his option year for 2009 didn’t vest after a specified number of plate appearances, and they’re paying for it through statistics. Toronto has mustered just 39 homers so far this season, and have nobody on their roster with 7+ homers. If you don’t have the plate discipline like the Yankees or Red Sox, than you better be knocking some baseball over the fence to hang with them, that’s why their current position of third place will probably be higher than where they finish.

NEW YORK YANKEES
(Note: I allowed my co-worker Derek, a depressed Yankee fan, to choose these as a way to let out his sorrow.)

Biggest Surprises-

1. Mike Mussina (SP)- His velocity keeps dropping, and he continues to re-invent himself as a pitcher to continue recording outs. He may only have a pedestrian 4.26 ERA, but he has kept the Yanks in nearly every ballgame he’s pitched, and has done exactly what they wanted from him in the final year of his contract (don’t kill the team). Now you wonder if the Yanks will bring him back on a one-year deal in 2009 just to keep some sense of stability in that sporadic rotation.
2. That Yankees Share A Thong- Derek originally had “Joba’s Bullpen Stay” penciled in for this spot, but i made a change after the pinch hitter was announced. Gentlemen of this world: If you wear a thong – more power to ya. But I sure as shit don’t wanna see it, or hear about it, let alone find out you’ve shared that thong with struggling teammates!!! I knew being a member of the Yankees was special, but i was mis-informed (or mis-remember) of the definition of the word in this case.

(Imagine Jason Giambi wearing this – then hurl yourself off a cliff.)

Biggest Disappointments-

1. The Young Guns- Don’t fret Yankee fans, I’m still a firm believer that it was a good move not to overpay for Johan Santana, despite the struggles of the young fireballers that were rumored to be headed west in the potential deal. Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, who were both in the opening day rotation, have begun the season 0-7 with an above 8.00 ERA in 14 starts. Both of them are fiddling with injuries right now, and with the emergence of Darrell Rasner and the promotion of Joba Chamberlain to the rotation, I think these guys will return to Yankee stadium in a bullpen capacity when they’re healthy.
2. The Offense- This team was built to wear out starting pitchers and then gut the underbelly of nearly every Major League team (the long relievers). Instead they are just a tick above the .331 on-base percentage average, and have struggled to score runs in particular stretches of the season. Part of the paradigm can be blamed on the loss of slugger Alex Rodriguez to a quad injury. But some of the Yankee stalwarts (Derek Jeter, Bobby Abreu, and Robinson Cano) have played well below their career averages.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

Biggest Suprises-

1. Their Record- I figured there was little chance of this team winning 60 games this year. They traded their best hitter and ace pitcher during the offseason, and didn’t appear to receive a ton of short-term help from either of those trades. Boy was I mistaken. Adam Jones is going to be an above-average outfielder when he fills out in the next couple of years, Luke Scott has played better than anyone thought he could, and George Sherrill, despite his age (31) has been a Godsend for that bullpen. There’s no doubt this team will finish last in this division, but if they continue this pace it won’t be by much.
2. Daniel Cabrera (SP)- Another one of those guys that has ace stuff, but minor league control and feel, Cabrera seems to have figured things out (somewhat) in 2008. His strikeouts are way down, but his walk numbers are down just as much. He’s the Carlos Zambrano of the American League in that regard – learning that strikeouts are important, but only when you really need them. Otherwise, just go after the hitter and throw strikes. Keep those innings short, and you’ll see success.

Biggest Disappointments-

1. Lack of Hits- They have no guys in their everyday lineup hitting over .267 and that tends to be a big problem when you have sub-par pitching staff. They will more than likely part with Brian Roberts if they can get enough in return for him (since the biggest Roberts suitor – the Cubs – don’t appear interested anymore), and will also try to purge the salary of Melvin Mora if they can just dump his contract on somebody with a B- prospect in return. Don’t expect these numbers to improve greatly.
2. Ramon Hernandez- A .218 average just isn’t going to cut it for a guy $7.5 million this season. He’s supposed to be the rock steady hitter in that lineup, but he hasn’t hit well enough to protect a free swinging pitcher these days. It’s official – he’s washed up.