So let’s get straight to the question that everyone seems to be asking me today.
Do I think that Derek Fisher fouled Brent Barry at the end of last nights’ 93-91 Lakers’ victory?
Yeah, probably.
I’m not sure what all the ruckus is about though, NBA fans should have known that there wasn’t going to be a foul called, no matter how bad Fisher bumped into Barry at the end of the game.
Consider the following:
David Stern was so worried about the Spurs winning this game that he had Joe Crawford, a ref who has had multiple run-ins with the Spurs, officiate this game. This was the first Spurs’ game that Crawford has officiated during these playoffs.
Barry should have known to throw up a shot the second Fishers’ feet left the ground. If he would have done so, it would have forced the officials’ hand. Instead Barry, who was having the game of his life before that sequence (23 points, including five buckets from beyond the arc), let the refs off the hook by taking a dribble after the contact.
Perhaps Tim Duncan had rendered the officials blind with all of his bitching. I’ve honestly never seen a player complain as much as he did in game four. It was nothing short of pathetic.
On the possession preceding the “Fisher bump,” the officials made an erroneous call when they didn’t see Fisher’s shot hit the rim before it was knocked out of bounds by the Spurs. The shot clock should have reset, giving the Lakers a chance to inbound the ball, get fouled, and make free-throws that would have made it a four-point game, rendering that last Spurs possession meaningless. Funny how this is getting played down by the media.
Most intelligent NBA fans know that refs have a tendency to lose their whistles in the closing moments of big games. Do any of you remember Jordan’s last shot as a Bull? He pushed Byron Russell so hard on the play Russell still hasn’t gotten up. It’s quite tragic actually.
Chad made a good point during the closing seconds of last nights game when he said that the Lakers didn’t deserve to win. The Lakers did a terrible job of managing the clock coming down the stretch, and when Kobe Bryant forced up a very difficult running bank shot when he should have held onto the ball, I almost had a heart attack. I mean, come on Kobe, you’re better than that.
Fortunately for LA, San Antonio got absolutely nothing out of Manu Ginobli. Not only did Ginobli struggle from the field, shooting only 2-8 from the field, was also unable to get the ball on that last possession. The play was designed to go to Ginobli, but Manu couldn’t shake off his defender to get off the last shot, great players find a way to get open in that circumstance. Do you think Kobe would have let that happen? No way. You would have to call in the state militia to keep Bryant from getting the ball in that situation.
Then again, there is no stopping the Mamba from striking!
(Sorry, I had to say that.)
When you look strictly at the numbers San Antonio should have won the game last night. San Antonio had the edge when it came to: three pointers (7-3), assists (22-17), steals (7-5) and blocks (4-3). You have to look at the scoring numbers of the Spurs and Lakers’ starters to see how LA was able to win this game. The Lakers’ starters scored 74 points to the Spurs 59 points. It didn’t help San Antonio cause that Michael Finley and Fabricio Oberto both put up a big, fat, zero on the score sheet.
I’m sure Spurs fans will have plenty of time to argue whether or not Fisher fouled Barry during the off-season because, as I was made aware of last night during Sports Center, teams that are up 3-1 in a series have gone on to win the series 95% of the time. Given that the Spurs have only one night off before the next game, and given the nature of the games during this series, it will be a near impossible feat for San Antonio to mount a comeback.
Have we seen the last of the dreaded Spurs as NBA champions? Well, I hope so, David Stern hopes so, and I think it’s safe to say that even the basketball gods are rooting for the Lakers at this point. Now I’m just rooting for Boston to do their part so we can all be treated to a Lakers/Celtics Finals.
(Editor’s Note: This is Part two of a six part series breaking down where all the MLB teams stand 1/3 of the way through the season)
Well folks, we’re briskly moving to the time of year when you start hearing scouts and experts use the phrase “small sample size” less and less, and begin to believe that the slump your star hitter is going through is no longer just a slump or that hot start for a guy may turn into season-long success. How are the stars and the no-namers doing so far in 2008? Let’s just see…
We steadily move in the easterly direction through the American League to check on AL Central – where the current landscape is as follows:
Chicago White Sox 29-23
Minnesota Twins 26-25
Cleveland Indians 24-29
Detroit Tigers 21-31
Kansas City Royals 21-31
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Biggest Suprises:
Carlos Quentin (OF)- I will pay anyone a million bucks if they can prove they predicted Quentin would be lead the American League in homers after nearly two months. I knew he would be good, but when the Sox traded 22-year-old Chris Carter, a player that hasn’t made it out of A-ball yet for Quentin, I knew Sox fans would love this trade. The D-Backs are kicking themselves for trading Quentin and re-signing Eric Byrnes, and the Pale Hose are reaping the benefits (.296/.402/.587).
The Pitching Staff- From a bullpen that made talk show hosts and fans alike rip their hair out, to a team that has a back end of the pen that is scary. Bobby Jenks, Scott Linebrink, Mike MacDougal, Nick Masset, Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, and Boone Logan have been rock solid in defending the leads that starters Gavin Floyd, John Danks, Jose Contreras, and Javier Vazquez are handing them. Those four starters all have an ERA under 3.52, and those seven relievers dominating the late innings all have ERAs under 3.57. With just three regulars batting above .280, can this really last? My magic 8-ball says “Don’t Count On It.”
Biggest Disappointments:
Mark Buehrle (SP)- Buehrle seems to be the only White Sox pitcher that can’t figure it out. Don’t worry folks, he’s going to get better. He’s getting knocked around quite a bit early on in the year, and his BABIP (Batting Average for Balls In Play) is way above the league average – which means he’s due to come back down to earth. Unfortunately, his rise won’t offset what will happen to the rest of the staff.
The Big Three- This team relies heavily on the middle of their order, and those guys just aren’t producing. Paul Konerko (.206), Nick Swisher (.206), and Jim Thome (.204) have been killing the team in the batters box. These guys may draw a lot of walks, but those low batting averages are unacceptable for guys that should be batting 2-3-4 in a normal year. For Thome and Konerko, chalk it up to them being on the downside of their career, but it shouldn’t be this excessive and Swisher can’t use that excuse.
MINNESOTA TWINS
Biggest Surprises:
Carlos Gomez (CF)- I figured the Twins would keep Gomez down in Triple-A for most of the season to develop some plate discipline. Instead, they handed him the territory that Torii Hunter nobly manned for many years, and Gomez hasn’t disappointed. His plate discipline still isn’t any good (only a .313 OBP) but his defense, hitting ability, and speed on the bases are a big reason why the Twins are in second place right now. And he better keep getting better, because he will always be known for the main puzzle piece in return for Johan Santana.
Livan Hernandez (SP)- After struggling in Arizona in 2007, I figured that it was time for Hernandez to work his way out of the league. Sure, he is a solid, innings-eating No. 5 pitcher for a good team, but not the ace of a staff through two months. He’s impressed everyone with a solid 4.22 ERA in what is (err…supposed to be) a hitters division. And if I’m the Twins, I would consider not using the DH on days that he pitches because he’s such a gifted hitter. Did you know that he has the most hits for any pitcher since 2001? Yes…I did.
Biggest Disappointments:
Delmon Young (OF)- With their plethora of pitching to give away, and in dire need of somebody with some pop in their bat, the Twins traded young fireballer Matt Garza to Tampa Bay (along with Jason Bartlett) for Young. All Young has done is hit 0 homers and seemingly hack at anything and everything that the pitcher throws. They need him to be a .290-25-100 guy in that lineup, and he has not lived up to that billing potential.
Michael Cuddyer (OF)- We know he’s got a cannon attached to his right shoulder, but that’s not enough when playing a corner outfield spot in the majors. Despite these outfielders being able to track down darn near any flyball, they need more hitting from them – especially from Cuddyer. For the past two years, he’s been the righty that Rod Gardenhire could throw in between his lefty hitting machines Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. In 2008, he hasn’t deserved that honor.
CLEVELAND INDIANS
Biggest Surprises:
Cliff Lee (SP)- Out of nowhere, he leads the American League in ERA at 1.50 and has been the anchor to that pitching staff. C.C. Sabathia (more on him in a bit) came out of the gate ice cold, and Lee stepped right in and kept the Erie Warriors in the race so far. Who would have thought it? Lee was back and forth between Triple-A and the majors in 2007, but has carved himself a permanent spot in Cleveland with his hot start this year.
C.C. Sabathia’s Rebound (SP)- From the last half of 2007, through the first four starts of the 2008 season, I thought something was seriously wrong with Sabathia. He had lost control on everything and seemed to be letting his long-term contract situation distract him from what was taking place on the mound. Since that fourth start, Sabathia has pitched 50.1 innings with a 1.61 ERA. His ERA for the season now sits at 4.74, which tells you just how awful he was. If he keeps pitching like this, he’ll have a $100 million contract with the New York Yankees in December.
Biggest Disappointments:
Travis Hafner (DH)- It’s gone from slump to scary for the man named Pronk. He’s hitting just .217 with four homers so far in ‘08, and his walk numbers are way below where they normally are. He hit .308 with 42 homers in 2006, and cashed in on a new deal with Cleveland. I’m afraid that his hitting slump isn’t anything that is real easy to fix, and he may have been one of those short run guys that blasted pitchers for three years, and lost it after that.
Hitting in General- Don’t blame all of the offensive woes that the Indians are having on Hafner, his teammates have sucked something else. They have 0 guys that have played more than 30 games and have a .300 batting average, and just one regular that is better than the .254 star CF Grady Sizemore sits at (Victor Martinez .299 – but with 0 homers). They will surely get better offensively, and will contend for this division, but will they hit enough to get any farther than a sniff of the playoffs?
DETROIT TIGERS
Biggest Surprises:
Magglio Ordonez (OF)- This isn’t the first time I’ve been wrong about Ordonez. He was awesome for my fantasy team in the first half of last year, but I traded him for pitching because I had too many OF’s, and I figured he would drop off the most. He’s continued hitting ever since that day. His .323, 9 HR, and 35 RBI lead the Tigers in all categories, and he has managed to not injure himself playing right field. I apologize Maggs – look for continued success for this man.
Armando Gallaraga (SP)- Where would their rotation be without this guy? His jump from the minor leagues, and his early success has stunned scouts and and Tiger fans alike. They gave Dontrelle Willis a $27 million extension, and then tell him when he gets off the disabled list that he’s heading to the bullpen because his rotation spot is filled by a rookie making a little more than 1/100th of his salary. I doubt he’ll maintain that 3.70 ERA he’s sporting right now, but at the very least he’s reliable right now.
Biggest Disappointments:
Miguel Cabrera (3B/1B)- Dave Dombrowski traded the house and new car for Cabrera’s age (25) and offensive consistency (has never hit below .294 or had less than 24 homers in any of his four full Major League seasons). The return on his investment has lacked enormously. Not only have the Tigers moved him over to 1B because of his awful defense at 3B (and Carlos Guillen’s struggles at first), but his hitting stats are way down while getting used to hitting against American League pitchers on a daily basis. He should find his stroke soon, but he’s now considered just a top-5 first baseman instead of the best young player in the game.
Justin Verlander (SP)- If I could’ve laid a $5 bet on anything prior to the Major League Baseball season, I would’ve bet that Verlander would be well on his way to 20 wins. Instead, his 2-7 record is the worst on the staff (I apologize, that’ll be the last time I refer to a W-L record by a pitcher – what a worthless stat) and his 5.17 ERA makes you want to hurl when you consider he’s supposed to be the ace of this staff. They need him to get on a roll if they want to win this division (which I still predict will happen).
KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Biggest Surprises:
Joakim Soria (CL)- How about these for numbers: 11/11 saves, 0.84 ERA, 10.55 K’s/9. I like them a lot. But he really hasn’t had a chance to defend many leads. I’ve heard some baseball people say that the Royals should stretch him out and try him as a starter to see how good he could be. Before debuting in the majors in 2007 with the Royals, Soria had only thrown 16.2 innings of pro baseball!!! They should see if he can be a starter, and then have a potential rotation of Zack Greinke, Gil Meche, Soria, Brian Bannister and Luke Hochevar. Man…if you give this team some pop in the lineup, they could contend in 2009. Maybe they become the surprise team to chase after Mark Teixeira.
Zack Greinke (SP)- After suffering through social anxiety disorder the past couple of years, Greinke has returned to the form that Baseball Prospectus envisioned he would have (they predicted he’d win the ERA title in 2005). Greinke has fought back in fine style, delivering quality starts eight out of ten times he’s toed the rubber this season. If he can step up and be the ace of this staff, the Royals will have a reliable arm they can build around for years to come.
Biggest Disappointments:
Billy Butler (1B)- Scouts and fans alike raved about this kid coming out of spring training, claiming that he may very well hit near .300 with 25 homers this season. So much for expectations. He’s stumbled out of the gate with a .265 average and just one homer during the first 1/3 of the season, and it may not be getting any better. He tore up most of his minor league stops, now it’s time for him to prove his worth in The Show.
Jose Guillen (OF)- The Royals were fortunate that Guillen wasn’t suspended for 25 games because of steroid use, and you have to wonder if they’d like to risk Guillen getting back on the juice. I thought a three year, $36 million dollar deal was right in line with what he deserved, and was a smart, short-term move for a team looking to keep their win total in the 70’s. You hope for the Royals sake, however, that the numbers Guillen posted in the past weren’t completely a product of the creme and the clear…
