(Editor’s Note: This is Part 1 of a six part series breaking down where all the MLB teams stand 1/3 of the way through the season)
Well folks, we’re briskly moving to the time of year when you start hearing scouts and experts use the phrase “small sample size” less and less, and begin to believe that the slump your star hitter is going through is no longer just a slump or that hot start for a guy may turn into season-long success. How are the stars and the no-namers doing so far in 2008? Let’s just see…
We’ll begin this six part series with the American League West – where the current landscape is as follows:
LA Angels of Anaheim 30-22
Oakland Athletics 28-23
Texas Rangers 26-26
Seattle Mariners 18-33
LA ANGELS OF ANAHEIM
Biggest Suprises:
- Joe Saunders (SP)- I never quite understood why the Angels never gave him a full-time rotation spot before this season. And the only reason he is in the rotation is due to injuries at the top of the staff. In filling in for Cy Young type guys like John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar, Saunders has delivered Cy Young type numbers: 8-1 with a 2.31 ERA (2nd best in the AL). The punchline to this surprising success story is that it won’t last long. Saunders has recorded just 29 strikeouts in 70 innings pitched, and with an average groundball to flyball ratio, his ERA and L numbers will be on the rise soon.
- Ervin Santana (SP)- He’s always possessed the “stuff” of an ace pitcher, but he’s desparately lacked in the three-C’s department (control, command, and composure). In past years, he’s been known for his Dr. Jekyll road games (8.38 ERA in 2007) and his Mr. Hyde home starts (3.38 ERA in 2007). Despite three consecutive rough outings, Santana is finally starting to prove that he can be an anchor in a Major League rotation.
Biggest Disappointments:
- Vlad Guerrero (OF/DH)- He’s been considered one of the most dangerous hitters for the past decade, but it seems like his decline could be more accelerated than most. Premier hitters start to go downhill around his age (32), but when that hitter rarely plays at 100%, that decline tends to be much quicker. Guerrero has never hit below .300 as a full time Major Leaguer, and he’ll more than likely do so again this year. But his power numbers are going to begin their steep decline. I sure hope he can get into the Hall of Fame someday, because he deserves it.
- Gary Matthews Jr. (OF)- Matthews Jr.’s contract is one of the top-5 worst position player contracts in baseball, and it’s time to stop playing him, and view him as a sunk cost. He has 3 years and $33 million remaining on his contract after the 2008 season, and he’s barely getting on base at a .300 clip. Why he still has a spot in the OF over Reggie Willits (.293/.391 with 27 SB in 2007) is an absolute mystery to me.
OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Biggest Surprises:
- Dana Eveland (SP)- How much would the Brewers love to have this guy back? A couple years ago, they traded a package that included Doug Davis and Eveland for Johnny Estrada and Claudio Vargas (both no longer with the Brew-Crew). Eveland was eventually shipped to Oakland in the Dan Haren trade, and so far, it looks like Billy Bean has struck again! Eveland has a 2.90 ERA on the season, which is stunning considering that opposing hitters are batting .415 vs. his fastball. That number will come down, but his ERA will go up a tick. He’s going to finish the year with a 3.70ish ERA.
- Greg Smith (SP)- He’s never had an ERA above 4.00 since Rookie ball, and he is continuing that success at the Major League level. Another player that came over in the Dan Haren trade, Smith is not going to blow you away with his stuff, but he’s going to get K’s, and he’ll keep you in ballgames. The 3.18 ERA will be closer to the 3.80 range as we progress during the season, but the A’s will take that in a heartbeat.
Biggest Disappointments:
- Rich Harden (SP)- He’s not a disappointment in the way he pitches; he’s on this list because of the frequency he pitches. If the A’s can run him out for two months straight (which would put us right at the trade deadline) and get him ten consecutive starts, they should pull the trigger on a trade. There will surely be a team out there willing to take the risk on this injury waiting to happen.
- Daric Barton (1B)- Barton is really only on the disappointment list because seemingly every guy on this team is playing at or above what they should be doing. Barton is only batting .213 with a couple of dingers, but he’s getting on-base at a .332 clip thanks to his 29 walks. His batting average will come around soon, and he’ll get that OBP up around the .400 levels. The only issue I have with teams that have a low batting average but a high on-base percentage is, who is going to drive in the runs??
TEXAS RANGERS
Biggest Surprises:
- Josh Hamilton (OF)- This isn’t really a surprise. Instead, it’s a potential happy ending on what was potentially a fatal story. Hamilton went from superstar prospect, to heroin addict, to a Rule 5 steal in the span of six years, and has turned out to be the perfect offensive force to replace the departed Mark Teixeira. They had to trade Edinson Volquez to get him, so the question for the long-term will be if the trade was worth it or not?
- Milton Bradley (OF)- Everyone knows that Bradley is an uber-talented ballplayer, but he’s always had a problem controlling and harnessing his anger along with staying healthy. I always thought he could be very successful playing for a team where he wasn’t one of the best players. With Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler, and Michael Young flanking him in the batters box, Bradley has exploded so far this season with a 1.028 OPS, including a .443 OBP. If he can stay healthy, the media shouldn’t be bothering him in a market like Texas.
Biggest Disappointments:
- Kevin Millwood (SP)- The starting pitching is always a weak spot in the hitters palace that the Rangers play in, and 2008 is no different. Millwood made a foolish decision after his gem of a 2005 season and decided to go to Texas. He would’ve been much better served to go to the NL West instead of the AL West. That decision could cost him some serious dough in his next contract – if there is one.
- Jason Jennings (SP)- He’s working on a 1-year $4 million contract with the Rangers, and they’re probably really happy that it’s that short. His 8.56 ERA is one of the five worst in the majors with the amount of innings he’s thrown. After having a fantastic year in Colorado in 2006, he was traded to Houston and hasn’t been the same. He’s had a few injuries which have probably contributed to how bad he has been.
SEATTLE MARINERS
Biggest Surprise:
- That they haven’t fired somebody yet (TEAM)- Something has to change here, and if I’m the president of that team, GM Bill Bavasi is the first one to go. This team is built all wrong, and why Richie Sexson wasn’t sent packing a couple of years ago boggles my mind. Most of these guys played far above expectations last year, and they gave up a ton in the Erik Bedard trade. To replace Bavasi, I would go into San Diego and steal Paul DePodesta away from Josh Towers staff. Unless of course DePodesta believes he can pry the Padres job away from Towers because of their awful play.
Biggest Disappointments:
- Kenji Johjima (C)- When the Mariners signed Johjima to an extension on April 25th i was completely blown away. He was in the final year of his contract, hitting .195 at the time, and Jeff Clement (one of the top catching prospects in the minors) was ready to go. Trading Johjima to a team in need of a catcher would’ve netted them a couple of pretty good prospects. He doesn’t handle pitching staffs well (mainly because he still doesn’t speak the language incredibly well) and may now become a long-term problem for the Mariners.
- Richie Sexson (1B)- He started the downhill slide late in his second season with the Mariners, and it hasn’t gotten any better. He may have 9 homers so far this season, but that doesn’t make up for his lineup killing .197 batting average. They can’t wait to get his name and salary off the books.
