By: Justin Jacobs
Tomorrow the NCAA tournament will resume, and millions of people around the country will be hoping to God that UCLA doesn’t lose. Most people would say that the NCAA tournament is the best post season tournament in all of sports, but I’m not most people. My favorite post season has always been the NBA’s. Given, I’ve been spoiled by the likes of Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O’Neal all these years, but I don’t think it really gets any better than the NBA playoffs. I know what you’re thinking, the NBA playoffs are too long and most of the teams in the East are terrible, and you’re right. But you don’t have to watch those terrible series, that’s the beauty of the remote control! On the other hand I challenge you to find a greater sports moment last year than LeBron’s 47 point performance against the Pistons in the Eastern Conference Finals. Say what you want about the NBA, but the level of play is on a whole other level than what you get out of college basketball. That’s not to take anything away from college hoops, I love the tournament as much as the next guy, but the NBA is where it is at for me.
So I’ve asserted how much I love the playoffs in the NBA, but unfortunately we’re still a few weeks away from the start of the opening round. Most years this would be one of the worst times of the year for the NBA, a time of year where the most interesting thing going on is arguing about all the tanking that goes on (Miami says hello). This year, however, we have one of the tightest conference races in NBA history, I’m sure you’ve heard by now that the Western Conference is pretty good, but how are things going to shake out? The Lakers were able to beat both Dallas and Utah recently without Pau Gasol or Andrew Bynum, and still are tied for the best record in the Western Conference with New Orleans. Which really begs the question, who is the MVP? I think at this point we can narrow the race down to Kobe and Chris Paul. All due to respect to LeBron James, but the Cavs aren’t playing in the West, and they aren’t the best team in the East. LeBron is having one of the greatest seasons in NBA history, but I think Paul and Bryant are having even better years. Yeah, I said it! I’m going to have to agree with the Sports Guy, (Bill Simmons) in saying that Chris Paul is having the single greatest season as a point guard in NBA history. Kobe on the other hand is having arguably the greatest season as a closer in NBA history. Every time a game gets down to the last three minutes or so, Kobe doesn’t miss. Which is pretty much par for the course with Kobe, but he’s also completely shutting down the other teams best guard. Both Kobe and Paul have their teams at the top of the best conference race in NBA history, and if I had a vote for MVP, it would probably go to the guy who carries his respective team to the better seed.
With all this Western Conference MVP talk it would be easy to jump to the conclusion that I hate all the teams from the Eastern Conference. Nothing could be further from the truth. I still think that the Boston Celtics are the team to beat in the NBA. Why? For two reasons, with the teams in the Western Conference beating each other up to get into the playoffs, let alone how brutal the Western Conference playoffs are going to be, any team that comes out of the East is going to have an advantage in the playoffs. The other thing that I love about the Celtics is their depth. They have the big three obviously, but they also have one of the top benches in the NBA. Guys like Big Baby Davis, Leon Powe, Sam Cassell, Eddie House and Tony Allen all can be game changers off the bench. This allows the Celtics to play all-out defense, they have the best defense in the league, and also allows them to rest the big three for long stretches at a time; which is a good thing because Allen, Garnett and Pierce have about 300,000 collective miles on their tires.
As good as the Celtics are however, they still have to be worried about Detroit and Cleveland. I don’t think there’s a player on the Celtics who can guard LeBron James. Well, to be fair, there’s not a single player in the league who can guard LeBron James. But as much as I love ‘Bron, he’s my second favorite player in the NBA, I don’t think Cleveland has enough overall talent to overcome Boston, or Detroit for that matter. There’s something about Detroit being under the radar that scares me. They are playing much better basketball on the offensive and defensive side of the ball this year, and I don’t see LeBron giving that once in a lifetime performance two years in a row. Again, nine times out of ten in the NBA the team with the better overall game is going to win in a best of seven series. Detroit has the big time guards (Billups and Hamilton), a monster post player in Rasheed Wallace, and that all-purpose player every great team needs in Tayshaun Prince. That all being said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cleveland knocks off either of Boston or Detroit, because I’ve seen James do it before, but I don’t think it’s likely.
Then there’s the Western Conference….
It’s a pretty safe bet to say that no “expert” really has a handle on the Western Conference this year. I mean, did anyone see Houston winning 22 straight? How about the rise of New Orleans and Utah, and the decline of Dallas? Not to mention all of the crazy trades that have changed multiple the face of multiple teams for the next five years. Now we are at this mad dash for the finish line with there only being six games separating the top teams (LA and New Orleans) from the ninth place team (Denver). It’s down right pathetic that if the playoffs started today Denver will miss the playoffs with a 43-28 record yet Atlanta would get in with a 30-40 record. There needs to be a new system and it needs to be implemented sooner than later, get on it Stern! Either way, every match-up in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs is going to be grueling. You can bet most of the teams are really hoping they get lucky enough to face Houston in the first round. The Rockets are coming off a huge emotional high after the winning streak and are without their best player, Yao Ming, for the rest of the season. On the other hand no one wants to play Golden State. Just ask Dallas what happens when you go up against The Warriors in a first round series. Baron Davis is the most underrated player in the league and Monte Ellis would probably be the runner up. If you try to play at Golden State’s pace you are going to lose, plain and simple. Imagine if Phoenix gets pitted against the Warriors in the first round, it could possibly be the greatest first round series in NBA history.
Speaking of Phoenix, after floundering early after getting Shaq they are now on a role. They’ve won seven out of their last ten and Amare Stoudemire is starting to look like Moses Malone now that Shaq is keeping other teams from doubling him. It took Steve Nash a little bit of time to get used to having the big man down low clogging up the lane, but he’s made a great adjustment and now Phoenix has to be considered one of the favorites to win in the West. They now have a player in Shaq who can effectively guard Tim Duncan, whereas San Antonio has no one to effectively guard Amare, who is playing the best ball of his career. I think that Steve Nash and Tony Parker will cancel each other out because neither one will be able to play any defense on each other. That leaves Manu Ginobli, who can go on scoring runs like Reggie Miller used to, against Leandro Barbosa, one of the fastest players in the NBA. I’m really hoping that these two teams face each other sometime during the Western Conference playoffs, if for no other reason than to see what happens when Steve Nash tries to dribble past Robert Horry. You just don’t mess with Big Shot Rob. I’m starting to think that these two teams are best prepared to make a run in the playoffs, depending on how well Shaq can hold up and….
How will the return of Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum effect the Lakers? We saw that when Kobe and Gasol were working well with each other the Lakers were close to unbeatable. Every time defending teams put too much of an emphasis on Kobe Bryant Gasol would get an easy dunk, and by every time I mean EVERY…TIME. Kobe is going to be a force in the playoffs, that’s a given, he’s one of the top five guards in NBA history, and he’s almost unguardable in the final minutes of a game. Like I said with LeBron though, in the playoffs you can’t do it by yourself, see the Lakers last couple of playoff experiences. This is different however, the Lakers now have a solid veteran point guard in Derek Fisher, not to mention a very capable back-up in Jordan Farmar. Most people probably have never heard of Sasha Vujacic, but he is a great three point shooter and a tenacious defender that can guard both the two and the three. Lamar Odom is one of the best all-purpose players in the league and Andrew Bynum can go 10-10 no matter who he is up against… if he’s healthy. That’s the question isn’t it. Bynum was supposed to be back playing by now, but he’s gone through a number of setbacks and will not be set to come back until around the time the playoffs start. Gasol is also coming off an injury, if less serious, and no one knows how well Gasol and Bynum will mesh. If Gasol and Bynum are able to compete at 100% and are able to mesh well, I think the Lakers can win it all this year. They have the deepest team in the league, two athletic seven footers and arguably the best player in the league, not to mention one of the greatest coaches in NBA history, but there are still a lot of unanswered questions.
So who will win it all this year? I really don’t see a clear favorite, although if I had to bet I’d put a five piece down on Boston. I think they have the path of least resistance and a very deep team, although Doc Rivers is still their head coach so who knows. The West is about as wide open as any race has ever been. We have been treated to some of the best basketball in years and I really have no idea who deserves the MVP. I’m still excited for the rest of the NCAA tournament, but I’m even more excited about the NBA playoffs. I think it says something that I haven’t even mentioned MLB’s opening day this week. I’m really excited about that too, but we’ll have all summer for that. Right now let’s get excited for the NBA playoffs because for the first time in over a decade the NBA matters again.
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Editors Note: For anyone playing fantasy baseball on ESPN, when you add someone to the DL make sure you reset your roster for the following day. I had to learn the hard way and now Rich Harden’s six inning, nine strikeout, one earned performance will not count. If I lose in any of those categories because of these shananigans this week I am going to be pissed.
