By: Chad Ruter and Justin Jacobs
Editors Note: To follow along with what we are talking about, it would be wise to click this link to see the draft results. Enjoy!
Justin: So on a scale from one to ten how excited were you for this draft?
Chad: Right around a 17, I’d say. And I don’t even think that scratches the surface on how excited you were.
Justin: Yeah, the scary thing was the wireless adaptor on my laptop broke about 30 minutes before the draft was suppose to start. Good thing I had three spare computers where I drafted – really dodged a disaster there. Unfortunately, others were less lucky and we had two no shows at our draft, Kristan and Derek.
Chad: I was battling through my own technical problems earlier in the week, so just in case, I had my friend Dan’s laptop at my disposal during the draft. One computer running a wireless connection, another plugged in just in case something happened. Like ending up with Eli Manning and Vinny Intercept-averde in our football draft after I already had Vince Young. As for Derek, he couldn’t draft because he was without internet, and Kristan was sick from what she told me. Only a pneumonia/AIDS combination could keep me from the draft! Didn’t matter though, she still ended up with Derrek Lee.
Justin: Yeah it’s pretty scary, I can only imagine that Kristan pre-ranked Cubs players higher than others just so she could have some Cubbies on her roster. It seems to happen every year. But… enough with the small talk, I’m sure the readers want to know just how this draft unfolded. I propose we start at the beginning and work our way through the draft. Anything you see that stands out in round one?
Chad: Ya know, in hindsight I really didn’t like where I was positioned. 4th is a solid spot, but imagine if you were at the bottom of the first round and got Ryan Howard, then took Prince Fielder at the start of Round 2…that team would be scarrrrry! I don’t know what I’m going to do this year? I took Jose Reyes at No. 4 overall to play SS for me. I’ve never won a league without Derek Jeter playing there. I already miss my team captain. God I sound like a Yankees fan…
Justin: Yes…. come to the dark side Luke. I am your fath… Sorry I couldn’t stop myself.
Chad: I will fight the force!! Anyways…what’d you notice in the first round?
Justin: I don’t know what’s going on this year with short stops going in round one so much. We had three short stops go: Ramirez, Reyes and Rollins. I opted to go with Matt Holliday. Here’s a guy who will help me in four categories. You can find steals later in the draft. I have to go with power guys early and you just don’t really get that with a short stop. I thought Ryan Braun going at 10 was a little early. I mean we’ve only seen him play about a year in the bigs and he’s already going in round one? Am I crazy or is that a little early?
Chad: I agree completely on the Braun point. Our sample size of him is miniscule. Yes, he had a fabulous season last year, but does that make him a first rounder? He’s not even the most productive fantasy player on his team! As for the shortstops, I can understand why people want those guys early. They are “5 tool” players when it comes to fantasy baseball. And it seems like every year the guy I’m always finding myself trying to trade for is Jose Reyes. He’s got something to prove this year, and that’s why I grabbed him. Answering the question on whether or not you’re crazy…the answer is a resounding yes, and so is Hanley Ramirez going in round 1.
Justin: Oh no you didn’t! People have really hopped on the Hanley train this year even though the Marlins lost Miguel Cabrera, but I still think he warrants a first round pick. He will get you 25 home runs, 50 steals, 125 runs and around 80 RBIs, not to mention that .320 batting average. Do I think he warrants the second overall pick in the draft, no, but I think he’s a first round talent.
Chad: Is he really going to get 80 RBI’s, or score 125 runs for that matter? Who’s going to drive him in? One aspect of handicapping a players fantasy worth is seeing who’s around that player. Jose Reyes isn’t nearly as valuable if he doesn’t have David Wright and Carlos Beltran driving him in. The drafting is different than it was five years ago. There were plenty of 40 home run guys to go around back then. But how many were there last year? Four, maybe? Enough about this topic though. Luke had the final pick of the first round, and in a snake draft, had the first pick in the second round. He took Mark Teixeira with Prince Fielder still on the board. I’m not a big fan of that move. If you’re going for a power first baseman, why not go after the guy with the most power? It’s not like either of them steal bases, or that Mark T does something better than Fielder.
Justin: Yeah. When Fielder fell to me with the 15th pick I was surprised and elated at the same time. Here’s a guy who can hit 50 home runs and drive in 120. I felt he was a border line first-round talent and I was going to draft him no matter who was still on the board. Unfortunately, you drafted two spots behind me in round two, but having Carlos Lee on your team is kind of like being insured by All-State (or is it State Farm?) … you are always in good hands with him.
Chad: I’ll admit, I think I made a mistake with Phillips. Overvalued because of his standout year in 2007, and he could potentially come back down to earth a la Derrek Lee a couple years ago. You know my opinion on pitchers in the first five rounds. It’s just a bad idea, especially in a head-to-head league. Any kind of pitching injury takes exponentially longer to heal than a position player, and you can’t afford to have guys in your Top-5 go down for that long. Look at Chris Carpenter. He threw 6 innings last year before blowing out his elbow and making that dreaded visit to Dr. James Andrews. Too risky in the first couple rounds. You cannot be taking risks early on. And why did Johan Santana drop to Round 2 this year, after moving to the easier league? Makes no sense.
Justin: I think it’s because we play in a league where the owners know better than to reach on a starting pitcher. In round four another thing happened that I know aggravates you, two catchers, Russell Martin and Victor Martinez came of the board. I didn’t fall into that trap though – I took Aramis Ramirez, who should be back to his 30 HR hitting ways, while you took Manny Ramirez, who also should come back strong after a relatively disappointing year.
Chad: Manny in a contract year had me licking my lips when my pick came up. And really, it’s a pseudo contract year because it’s a team option. Nonetheless, if he wants his money, he needs to hit 35 homers again. I’ve had Ramirez in a league each of the last two years, but he’s just gotten too streaky for my liking. Plus, his power numbers are down for some reason. I guess I watch him too much, and pick on him a lot. One catcher coming off the board is ludicrous, and two is even more mind-boggling. I’m glad people do it, because it keeps them from stealing guys I want. I can understand Victor Martinez, but Russell Martin in Round 4? I got him in Round 20 last year! You can get a good catcher late in drafts, and they are the most injury prone out of any position player. Any kind of injury can sit them out for a week because of the rigors they have to go through for the position. Ever heard of Joe Mauer?
Justin: Agreed. There’s just too much talent out there to be focusing on catchers early. Let’s switch this up and go group rounds five through ten into one conversation. What picks stand out to you and why?
Chad: I think Huston Street going in round 8 was a reach. He’s a huge injury concern, and won’t get a lot of save opportunities because of the team the A’s are fielding this year. I don’t even know if they could win the Pacific Coast League title (that’s Triple-A for those of you that aren’t…in-the-know). Francisco Liriano and John Lackey both went in round 10, and those two picks could go either way. Liriano is coming off TJ surgery, but hasn’t thrown with the electricity he did two years ago, and Lackey having arm problems is no bueno for the Angels. But if they can both get back to their old forms, those could be two steals talent wise…you just won’t get the full-year value out of them. Anything stand out to you?
Justin: We saw a lot of the quality closers come off the board in these rounds. There are a lot of experts who preach to not pay for saves, but why not? Closers get you more than saves, they also help to get your ERA and Whip down and will get you Ks as well. I opted to draft four closers in our league, Saito, Cordero (Francisco and Chad) and Hoffman. What’s your stance on closers?
Chad: As you can notice from the draft list, I like taking them early too. They provide those low ERA and WHIP numbers, and high strikeout rates, which is a huge advantage in a H2H league. If a closer gets lit up for say 3 runs in 2/3 IP, it absolutely kills your ERA for that week. You can make up for a bad day like that in a rotisserie league because your taking averages over 1800+ innings. But when you’re only pitching in the vicinity of 30-50 IP per week, a disastrous outing for a closer can really hurt you. That’s why I like taking low-ERA closers who are going to rack up saves. How about rounds 11-15, what jumped off the page at you?
Justin: Carlos Marmol going in the 16th surprised me. I think he’d be a good guy to grab at the end of the draft, but I don’t know what he gets you as long as he’s not the Cub’s closer. I love the Nick Swisher and Josh Hamilton picks because they will more than likely have great years for their respective teams, and I grabbed Jim Thome in the 12th because he was the last guy on the board who I thought had a chance to hit 40 home runs. I see you also took a chance on Pedro in the 11th, which I think could be a make or break guy for your team, do you agree?
Chad: Not break. An 11th round pick is never going to break your team unless you never check it. But if he stays healthy and puts up vintage Pedro numbers, then I just picked up a pitcher who could get 20 wins with 150 K’s in the 11th round. To everyone else, those numbers should be going in 4th. I called Luke the minute he drafted Nick Swisher and berated him on the phone for five minutes. Nick Swisher was THE GUY I wanted out of anyone in the draft. I see him having a monster year in Chicago. I was primed to pick him on the comeback in that round, and Luke yanked him. Prime lesson on why you should always draft the player you absolutely want two rounds before they should go. Another mistake I made…seemed to be an ongoing theme. Give me two guys in the last six rounds that you think were great picks, and give me a couple picks that made you scratch your head.
Justin: The two picks I love would be are Joba Chamberlain in the 19th and Pat Burrell in the last round. Having Joba on your team could really help you down the stretch when he becomes a starter. The guy has some of the most dominating stuff I’ve ever seen and definitely worth a late pick, if for nothing else than stashing away for half of the year. Pat Burrell is a guy who can get you 30 HRs and 100 RBI, now that’s value! As far as the worst two picks of the last six rounds I’m going to have to go with Johnny Damon and Homer Bailey. Both have been dumped already for better players. I drafted Damon, but decided it would be wiser to roll the dice on a guy like Rich Harden. Here’s a guy who has the tools to be a top twenty pitcher if he stays healthy. It’s a big if, but he was a waiver wire pick-up, so I don’t mind the risk. How about you?
Chad: I was going to say Pat Burrell if you didn’t. The problem I have in drafts is I’ve become so engrained in baseball that I write-off guys because of their poor NON-fantasy numbers. Burrell is a guy that strikes out a ton, doesn’t play relatively good defense and doesn’t walk a ton. But he has a ton of fantasy value because of his light-tower power. Guys that rank in this list for me include Burrell, Torii Hunter, Troy Glaus, and the list goes on. Yunel Escobar could be a 20th round steal if he plays as well for the Braves as he did in limited time last year. They traded Edgar Renteria to make room, so the kid must be good. The other great pick is Rick Ankiel. If he plays every day, he could easily hit 35 homers. He hit 43 in 2007 in Triple-A and the majors combined. Will his plate discipline get him a starting role though? Still, great value. The one pick I didn’t like was Evan Longoria. He’s going to be a GREAT fantasy player, but he’s going to start the year in Triple-A because of monetary reasons (they don’t want him becoming a Super-2 player, i.e.: eligible for arbitration after two years instead of three). You have to be playing in the majors to have fantasy value, and we don’t carry minor league spots on our rosters. I do like my Johnny Cueto pick in 20th round. He’s being compared to Pedro at his age because of his 5′10” frame and electric stuff. He could be a potential ace if they make the commitment to him on the major league level.
Justin: We shall see my friend. Well let’s wrap this thing up before we send the women and children running with the size of this thing. How do you feel about your team overall? Who do you think had the best draft and who do you think had the worst?
Chad: I like my team overall, but I always do after a draft. Despite making a couple of errors I don’t typically make, I came out pretty well. My pitching is stronger than it has been in the past, and has the potential to be the best in the league, despite not taking a starter until round 7. I don’t have the 40 HR masher I’m used to having (Ryan Howard each of the past two years, along with Mark T and Matt Holliday thanks to J), but all my guys are going to get at least 20 besides Reyes. I think I have a Top-3 team. Outside of the two of us, the best draft award would go to Craig Heckman. His team is going to hit homers, score runs, and get loads of RBIs, and since he rotates his pitchers through every week (a strategy that I despise) he can afford to let Lackey sit on the pine until he’s healed. He’s got a good team. Nobody had a bad draft, except for the auto-picked teams, but I was a little surprised at Luke’s team. He’s a yearly front-runner, but I’m not a huge fan of his team. Curtis Granderson is a guy that went too high because of his non-fantasy numbers (20-20-20-20 season last year – but only two of those categories count towards fantasy). Nick Markakis is a solid pick, but will they even bother pitching to him with no one else in that lineup that’s going to hurt you? Bannister and Dempster are a bit confusing to me as well. Those are late-round picks with little upside to me. He’s crafty though, and his teams always perform better than they look on paper. Your thoughts?
Justin: One of the big goals of this year’s team for me was becoming more well-rounded. I’ve always focused on power in the past, usually at the cost of speed. This year even though I drafted Holliday and Fielder in the first two rounds I also drafted three guys who went at least 20/20 last year in Upton, Brynes, and Kinsler. I also made it a point to get closers, and took some chances with my starting pitching. As of right now my rotation is Kazmir, Young, Burnett, Perez, Buckholz and Harden. So there’s a lot of risk that could yield a lot of award. I don’t think I came out with the best team, but I think it’s very solid. My favorite team would probably go to the newcomer Ryan Thomas who has a core of: David Wright, Vlad, Corey Hart, Roy Holladay, Sabathia, Jenks and K-Rod. He should be tough to beat this year. I think Ryan Fergueson, another of the newcomers is going to have a rough year, he is very weak at closer and the only hitters I really like on his team are A-Rod, Soriano and Martin. I think he may struggle this year. Any final thoughts, Chad?
Chad: All opinions in this post are subject to change when the season starts in two days, and any copies of this transcript may not be duplicated without the expressed written consent of Major League Baseball. Will I be seeing you on AIM at 5am Tuesday morning my friend?
Justin: For a Red Sox game? I doubt it, I don’t thik I even have any of my players going. Only you are crazy enough to get up to watch that.
Chad: If MLB in 2008 starts at 5am, i’ll be sitting in front of the TV at 4:59 with a bowl of cheerios in front of me, and you can take that to bank! Anyways, Happy Easter everyone!
Justin: Merry Fantasy Baseball to all, and to all a good Easter!
