By: Chad Ruter
So now that everyone has had 48 hours to digest the 3,500+ words of my American League preview…it’s time to hit you with some real knowledge: The National League baby – a.k.a Quadruple-A baseball!
Before I get started, I want to inform everyone of the conversations Justin and I have been having lately. Basically he has told me that every Saturday he re-tiers his fantasy baseball cheat sheets and actually doesn’t need them to do a draft anymore. Does this strike any fear in me? To be honest…a little. I bank on the fact that I know more about baseball than 99% of Americans, but Justin is fastly approaching. I would assume at this point in time, he’s just a smidge below me in knowledge of Major Leaguers…but the place I still hold the advantage is in prospects. I keep track of the can’t miss prospects along with guys that don’t have great long-term value, but can produce for short times. It’s a small advantage to have, but an advantage nonetheless. Justin also looked at the trade we made mid-season last year (I received Mark Teixeira and Matt Holliday – the two best NL hitters in the second half – and I gave up Chris Young, Hideki Matusi and Kevin Youkilis). Justin will admit in a later column that he puked when he rehashed the trade. What I haven’t told him is the trade gave me the flexibility to move Ryan Howard back to 1B, and when Big-Tex got done with his injury, I was able to spin an overachieving Magglio Ordonez (who continued to tear it up after I traded him) to my buddy Luke for Daisuke Matsuzaka and Mark Buerhle. It was a thing of beauty.
In the order I predict they’ll finish…
NL WEST:
1. Colorado Rockies-
-There incredible win-streak to conclude the 2007 was something out of a fairytale. It was one of those fluky streaks that comes along once every 25 years and you have to treasure it when you see it. Unfortunately, I don’t think they can repeat that streak, but I do think they’ll be right there again for the Wild Card. Matt Holliday returns with a new contract, and will once again power the Rocky Mountain Express. To be honest, after I typed that last sentence and looked at their depth chart, I moved them to the top of the NL West. Holliday, Brad Hawpe, Todd Helton, Garret Atkins, Troy Tulowitzki, and a lurking Ian Stewart in Triple-A translates into a phenomenal offensive force. Combine that Coors Field offense with a pitching staff that overachieved last year, but will be infused with young talent for a full season, and you’ve got a division winner. Did I mention Manny Corpas is a lights-out closer, and lefty reliver Brian Fuentes was a closer before he got the yips last year. Most of these guys won a title together in Double-A Tulsa a few years ago, and I believe they’re primed to return to the top of the NL. I don’t know if they have the top-of-the-rotation guys to win a title…but anything can happen in a 7-game series.
Matt Holliday: Can he lead the team to the promise land once again? I think so.
Breakout Player – Ian Stewart – There are so many to choose from on this team, but I’m going with Stewart because I believe he can ease into the Majors when either Atkins, Helton, or whomever wins the 2B job. He hit well in Colorado Springs last year, and that usually translates to good numbers in Denver.
Burnout Player – Willy Taveras – They will miss the speed of Kaz Matsui in the number 2 spot this year, and I don’t see Taveras hitting .320 again. He also had 33 steals in just 97 games last year. He’ll keep the speed, no doubt, but he won’t be on-base near as much.
2. Arizona Diamondbacks:
-Talk about a loaded division. Four teams could very well compete for the title, but I have the Baby-backs coming away with the title for a few reasons. They are loaded with young hitters that all have extremely high potential…none higher than RF Justin Upton. Scouts and GM’s alike believe he’s one of those Hall of Fame type prospects that you see come around once or twice every five years. Combine him with Eric Byrnes and Chris Young, and you have an incredibly prolific outfield that plays great defense and can compliment each other perfectly on offense. The acquisition of Dan Haren was the biggest offseason move for Arizona. Despite moving to the easier league, he’s going to have similar, if not, worse numbers than he had in Oakland because of the difference in ballparks and defense. Nonetheless, if you combine him with Brandon Webb, you’ve got the best 1-2 punch west of the Mississippi River. Not to mention having Randy Johnson back healthy – but we’ll have to wait to see on him because he does turn 45 in September. Brandon Lyon takes over the closer role for the traded Jose Valverde, but don’t expect too much dropoff.
Breakout Player – Justin Upton – He’s going to be good. In fact, I don’t know that I’ve heard anybody say he’s not going to be a consistent All-Star. He’s not going to rock your socks off with stats this year, but just wait.
Burnout Player – Chad Tracy – I’m just not sure about him anymore. Three years ago my sources informed me he was going to win a batting title. He hit 27 bombs and hit near .300 that year. Since then, he either hasn’t played a full season, or his strikeouts jumped by about 60% and his average had plummeted. Mark Reynolds is behind him at third base and will push him for a job, and there is no way Conor Jackson is moving from first.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers:
-OK, so they brought in Joe Torre. Big whoop. They have a bunch of young arms that he can blow out – just as he was going to do if he stayed in New York this year. Their outfield situation is extremely interesting. They signed Andruw Jones to a two year contract and he’ll be playing centerfield. They also have a couple of youngins that should be manning the corners in Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp. Unfortunately, they still have Juan Pierre and his $11 million per year for four more years on their books (Just imagine having GW Bush for four more years, and that’s how the Dodgers feel). He’ll steal a lot of bases and hit around .300, but his OBP is awful and I hit as many homers in the majors as he did last year (I recorded three in slo-pitch softball though!). They also have Nomar Garciaparra playing 1B, but youngster James Loney has proven he needs to be there everyday, so you may see Nomar go to third. Despite these issues, their rotation is strong with Brad Penny, Chad Billingsly, Derek Lowe, and Japanese import Hiroki Kuroda. They also have hotshot lefty Clayton Kershaw ready to go whenever they need him. He’ll dominate the West when he gets there. Takashi Saito and Jonathon Broxton make up a dominant duo at the back end.
Breakout Player – Matt Kemp – He’s got the skills to be a great player, but how will he be with Joe Torre coaching. He once again has to prove himself. He hit .342 in 98 games last year for LA, but only drew 18 walks. One thing Torre knows how to do is teach a hitter patience. Hopefully he teaches Kemp.
Burnout Player – Nomar Garciaparra – He’s hurt way too much, and can’t find a position on this infield. Juan Pierre is the co-award winner for this team because baseball guys realize that a .300 batting average doesn’t make you an everyday player. You have to bring something else to the table.
4. San Diego Padres:
-They always seem to linger at the top of that division with Kevin Towers as the GM, but 2008 is not their year. They don’t have near the number of prospects coming up as the Rockies and Diamondbacks, and have relied heavily on free agents to fill holes. They lost Mike Cameron and replaced him with a broken down Jim Edmonds. They weren’t satisfied with the output of Marcus Giles at 2B, so they went out and signed Tadahito Iguchi. Each of those guys struggled in hitters ballparks last year, so I can’t imagine them improving in the cavernous confines of Petco Park. Brian Giles isn’t getting any younger either. They are anemic offensively, but still have Jake Peavy at the top of their rotation. After that though, question marks linger. Chris Young dominated the first half of ‘07, but struggled in the second half. Greg Maddux is just plain old, Randy Wolf hasn’t proven he’s healthy, and neither has Mark Prior. This team could see a drastic fall after being one out away from the playoffs last year. Damn that Tony Gwynn kid!
Breakout Player – Chase Headley – This 23-year-old dominated Double-A San Antonio last year, ripping 20 homers while hitting .330 with a .400+ OBP. He plays third base and is currently blocked by Kevin Kouzmanoff. My prediction is that they’ll either trade Kouz, or find another place for Headley to play because they are in dyer need of his offense.
Burnout Player – Jim Edmonds – Five years ago he was a dangerous left-handed power hitter that protected Albert Pujols amazingly, and played Gold-Glove defense. He’s a shell of himself now. His swing is longer and slower, his defense has receded and he can’t seem to stay healthy.
5. San Francisco Giants:
-If they didn’t have starting pitchers Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum at the top of their rotation, you would be looking at this team to win maybe 50 games. OK, I’ll mention Barry Zito, but I’m not at all happy about it. Talk about overpaying a guy. I didn’t understand the signing of Aaron Rowand. He won’t help this team long-term unless they plan on dangling him in a trade in the next couple of years, but there’s no guarantee he’ll repeat his crazy ‘07 numbers. They lost their top two home run hitters in Barry Bonds and Pedro Feliz, and if they don’t get homers from Rowand, could be the only team in the majors with 0 guys recording 20+ homers. They have a really good rotation, but none of their starters will have a winning record, and their bullpen is really bad too. This team is about 5 years from doing anything.
-Breakout Player – Matt Cain – Considered a #1 type starter, and he pitched like it last year. The best part is, he pitched from behind most of the time, so I can’t even imagine how he’d be with run support. Look for him to have a sub-3.50 ERA but may not even get 10 wins.
-Burnout Player – Barry Zito – Awful contract, and he is long past is Cy Young award winning season of 2002. He’s only 29 right now, and that’s what scares me. He went bad too soon, and people just sit on his curveball now.
NL CENTRAL:
1. Chicago Cubs:
-Call me a homer if you like, but what team in the Central is better? The Cubs have virtually the same team back from last year, and they filled a double-edged need with a lefty-hitting, OBP machine – his name is Kosuke Fukodome. Carlos Zambrano needs to have an actual Cy Young season to take them to the next level, not just one that’s talked about. I’m not going to spend a whole lot of time on the Cubs. If you want my full report, read my column “3-Digits a Charm?” that I wrote early last week.
Carlos Zambrano: His arm angle is the key to his pitching. If its high, he’s good, if it’s low, he gets lit up.
Breakout Player – Geovany Soto – I don’t think last year was a fluke. I truly believe he turned the corner. Could be a Rookie of the Year winner.
Burnout Player – Jason Marquis – His comments yesterday didn’t help his cause to make the rotation. It’s time for him to go if they can find the right deal.
2. Milwaukee Brewers:
-They have a ton of offense, but their defense and pitching is a concern. To fix the defense, they moved Ryan Braun, a fabulous hitter but a defensive butcher, from 3B to LF, and they moved Bill Hall from CF to 3B to fill in with the addition of Mike Cameron. Cameron will be serving a suspension for the first 25 games, so you’ll find Tony Gwynn Jr. (who ironically killed his father’s teams hopes of the playoffs last year by getting a hit off his father’s longtime teammate) patrolling CF. Prince Fielder is a monster hitter, and everyone is saying that Rickie Weeks is going to have a monster season. I’ll wait to see for myself. As for their rotation, if the guy has talent, they have injury problems, otherwise the guy doesn’t have talent. They need Yavoni Gallardo and Ben Sheets to make 28+ starts each to have a chance, but I just don’t see that happening. Their bullpen is a mess too, but they hope for a rebound by Eric Gagne. Manager Ned Yost is a definite weakness. He just doesn’t manage a game well, and he lost his cool by getting into a beanball contest with Tony La Russa and the Cardinals in the heart of a playoff race. No bueno.
Breakout Player – Bill Hall – I don’t know that he was every comfortable in CF. Now that he’s back on the infield, he may be able to return to his .290/25/80 form that he pumped out two and three years ago.
Burnout Player – Jason Kendall – He was bad for the Cubs last year, and the only way you can afford to have him on your team is if you are above-average offensively at every other position. Since the Brewers aren’t, Kendall was a bad call. They’re already talking about hitting him behind the pitcher.
3. Cincinnati Reds:
-It pains me to put a Dusty Baker managed team up this high, but they have a lot of young talent. Joey Votto, Jose Cueto, Homer Bailey, Norris Hopper – these guys could see everday action with bombers Ken Griffey Jr., Adam Dunn, and Brandon Phillips. Their rotation is a little bit better, their hitting is a little bit better, and their bullpen is a little bit better in ‘08, and that’s why this team is on the rise. Although I can’t wait to see Reds fans up in arms when Baker’s cardboard cutout in the dugout makes a bad decision.
Breakout Player – Homer Bailey – He struggled in a few starts in the majors last year, but no fear Cincy fans, he’s going to be a great major leauge pitcher. 2008 is his year.
Burnout Player – Brandon Phillips – .288/30/94 with 32 steals…are you kidding me? Where did that come from? I’ll tell you – contract year! I forsee an injury in his future.
4. Houston Astros:
-Oh boy, they acquired Miguel Tejada! The problem: they have 0 pitching. Roy Oswalt is the only guy on that entire staff with the exception of closer Jose Valverde that I would consider for a team. The offensive balance could be really good with Hunter Pence, Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman, and Tejada…but not even those guys all having good seasons could the Astros score enough runs to win.
Breakout Player – Hunter Pence – He was on a tear last year before he got hurt, and will pick up from where he left off from day one.
Burnout Player – Craig Biggio – Wait a second, he finally retired!!! People in Houston may rejoice!
5./6. Pittsburgh Pirates/St. Louis Cardinals:
-I couldn’t decide which team was worse so I’m bunching them up together. There is no reason for hope if you’re a fan of either team. Albert Pujols has an arm injury that is making people talk about season-ending surgery so that he’s prepared for the 2009 season from the start. For the Pirates, their best player (Jason Bay) had an awful 2007 that killed any potential trade value he had. They fired their manager and a bunch of people within their organization, trying to refigure things from the top down. Good move on their part, because they weren’t going anywhere, anytime soon.
Albert Pujols: An arm injury is dropping him into the second round of fantasy drafts, and is forcing St. Louis to consider shutting him down during a down year.
NL EAST:
1. New York Mets:
-Despite their 7-game collapse in the final 17 days of the season last year, the Mets return in ‘08 as the heavy favorites because they added a multiple Cy Young Award winner to go with the one they had coming back off injury. In a perfect world, Johan Santana and Pedro Martinez start 60+ games combined and they run away with the title. But Martinez struggles to stay healthy, and Santana struggled at the end of 2007, so this saga is too be continued. Offensively, they’re loaded as always. Jose Reyes and David Wright are two of the five best offensive forces in the National League, and Carlos Beltran is no slouch either. Carlos Delgado getting injured is a concern because they have nobody that can hit enough to play 1B everyday behind Delgado, and they need his bat dearly. If they can keep everyone in their rotation healthy, they should win the division by 5 games. It’s just something you can’t count on to happen forsure.
Johan Santana: Winner of a pair of Cy Young awards in the American League (2004 & 2006) could post a sub-2.00 ERA in the National League.
Breakout Player – John Maine – He was great in the first half of 2007, and struggled down the stretch. Now that he doesn’t have to be “The Guy” anymore, I think he can thrive pitching against either the 3 or 4 guy in any other rotation.
Burnout Player – Moises Alou – When healthy, he’s awesome…but when has that happened lately. I think they’ll be in the market for a corner outfielder come July.
2. Philadelphia Phillies:
-They snuck up and pulled out the division last year, but can they do it again in ‘08? I’m not sold yet. Their rotation has an oft-injured Cole Hamels at the top, and an oft-crazy Brett Myers who might punch out his wife at any moment. They lose bullpen depth with Myers back in the rotation, but he’s more useful pitching 190+ innings than he is pitching 70ish. Ryan Howard has officially turned into a Three True Outcomes sorta player, but you can live with that when he’s bombing 50 homers and you have guys like MVP award winner Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley to surround him. They wont miss a bit with Aaron Rowand gone because Shane Victorino moves over to CF, and Jayson Werth and Geoff Jenkins make a good platoon compliment. I’m not sure why teams don’t do this more often. Committ to a platoon and stick to it. You get the best out of two players. Their bullpen is not very strong, even with Brad Lidge healthy, in which he won’t be until a week or two after opening day.
Jimmy Rollins: Won the NL-MVP in 2007 after guaranteeing during spring training that his team would make the postseason.
Breakout Player- Shane Victorino – I think his .280/12/46 with a .346 OBP last year in 131 games is just scratching the surface with this guy. He’ll probably top out at 20 homers, but I think he has the potential to hit .300. Wait, did I mention he stole 37 bases? I guess I just did.
Burnout Player- Kyle Kendrick – His 10-4 record and 3.87 ERA looked pretty for the rookie, but the peripheal numbers were ugly. Opponents batted .280 against him, and he only had 49 strikeouts in 121 IP. He’s desined for an ERA of about 4.50…on the good side.
3. Atlanta Braves:
- Their midseason trade for Mark Teixiera was a great move, now they just have to make sure they lock him up long-term. They lose Andruw Jones’ .210 average, and have a guy in the minor leagues that really isn’t ready to go, so Mark Kotsay will keep the seat warm. They also traded Edgar Renteria to deepen their rotation with Jair Jurrjens. Yunel Escobar looked awesome in his infield playing time last year, allowing the Braves to trade a very good Renteria. When healthy, the back end of their bullpen is pretty solid, and a rotation headed by John Smoltz and Tim Hudson signals the big names that the Braves had in the mid-90’s. Chipper Jones wants to play 150 games this season, and if he does he could be up for the MVP award. Chipper is on his way to the Hall of Fame. In 2007, he quietly hit .337 with 29 homers and 102 ribbies in just 134 games. Unfortunately, these guys play in a very top-heavy East.
Breakout Player – Jeff Francouer – He’s played every single game the past two years for the Braves. To go along with solid defense and a tremendous arm, his offense is coming around. Last year, he raised his average 33 points and drew nearly double the amount of walks he had in 2006. He dropped off by 10 homers, but he jumped in the doubles department. The next step for him would be .300/30/120 – and he could do it.
Burnout Player – Tom Glavine – The collapse began when he couldn’t make it out of the first inning against the Marlins on the final day of the season. His career will end where it began, in the heart of Atlanta, GA. It’s been a tremendous career for the future Hall of Famer, but it won’t be a glorious ending.
4. Washington Nationals:
-Last year they surprised everyone by winning more than 60 games. They might do the same again in 2008. I love their outfield rotation of Willy Mo Pena, Austin Kearns, Lastings Milledge, and Elijah Dukes. They all have their individual issues, but collectively they could be extremely productive. They have to trade either Dmitri Young or Nick Johnson because they don’t want one of those guys on the bench. Both are talented, nut Johnson just can’t stay healthy. He could be a .400 OBP guy for a team in need of 1B help. Ryan Zimmerman will bounce back this year and be the team MVP once again. Their rotation is thin, inexperienced, and lacks overall talent. In all of their wheelings and dealings, its the area they’ve ignored a little bit, but they can get help there in a few years. This team could be competitive in about 3-4 years, but it just takes time when you can’t write 100 million dollars in checks.
Breakout Player- Lastings Milledge – He got a raw deal in New York, and his attitude did not fit with that team or the players. Now he’s on a team where everyone in that outfield has had a problem with authority at one time or another, and he can take a step back and do his job.
Burnout Player – Christian Guzman – I want to believe that last year wasn’t a fluke, but I just can’t. He hit .328 in 46 games before he got injured, and he was also on pace for a career high 60 walks. Prior to last season, he was seemingly washed up because he couldn’t hit or draw a walk. That’s the Guzman that I know.
5. Florida Marlins:
-Do I feel bad for Marlins fans? A little. But they have 2 titles in the last 10 years, so my sympathy doesn’t last real long. They traded two of their three best players in the same trade, and got nobody that is major league ready in return except for Andrew Miller. It was good to get rid of Dontrelle Willis, but Miguel Cabrera is the type of player that you build a franchise around. Now that he’s in Detroit, the building will take place around Hanley Ramirez, who’s due for a position change sometime in the near future. If they want to win more games, they need to move him either to 3B or somewhere in the OF because he’s awful at SS. They get very little offense from their outfielders, and really don’t have strong pitching anywhere right now. You have to remember though, everyone on this team is very young, and they have all been considered above-average prospects at one point or another.
Breakout Player – Mike Jacobs – He’s had two full seasons in the majors to prove himself, and I think he does so in 2008. I hope he can go out there and hit .280 with 25 homers. The potential is there, but was he rushed?
Burnout Player – The Pitching Staff – Joe Girardi was blamed for blowing out some arms two years ago when he took the team to the brink of the wild card. That may very well be, but it can’t be his fault that all of their top pitching prospects are missing their arms.
MVP:
Obvious Pick: David Wright
Sneaky Pick: Mark Teixeira
CY YOUNG:
Obvious Pick: Johan Santana
Sneaky Pick: Roy Oswalt
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:
Obvious Pick: Geovany Soto
Sneaky Pick: J.R. Towles
NL DIVISIONAL ROUND:
Cubs over Phillies
Mets over Rockies
NL CHAMPIONSHIP:
I can’t make this pick in good conscience…you all understand, right?
