By: Chad Ruter
Good to see Justin write a column last night. He hadn’t in previous days because he locked himself in a dark basement and read The Bill James Handbook cover-to-cover by candlelight…trying to discover and replicate my Jedi-like fantasy baseball abilities. Justin- I acquired The Force by selling my soul to the dark side years ago. And oh-by-the-way…I am your father!
In the order in which I project they’ll finish…
AL WEST-
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim:
-They had the opportunity to go after the franchise changing player in Alex Rodriguez, but they let him re-sign with the Yankees. Of course, they would’ve had to dish out $300 million, and paying one player more than 25% of the team’s total payroll is something that owner Art Moreno vowed he would never do. Instead, they burned up $90 million in the horribly over-valued Torii Hunter. This is a guy that has never hit .300, hit 30 homers only once, and has never recorded on OPS of .900 or better – and at this point in his career is only playing a notch above-average defense. They have too many outfielders (Hunter, Vlad Guerrero, Garret Anderson, Reggie Willits, and Gary Matthews Jr.), and a major platoon at SS with the trade of Orlando Cabrera to Chicago for Jon Garland. Nonetheless, their rotation is quite possibly the best in the AL from top-to-bottom, and they still have K-Rod closing games for them, albeit at a price-tag of $10 million. Seattle only got a touch better, so these guys will run away with this division again.
Breakout Player- Jered Weaver – Since most of the players are already developed, it was tough to find a guy on this team that could breakout more than they already have. Weaver, however, will finally get a full season in the Majors where he will be without an innings limit. He could go as many as 200 IP this year, and finish with a sub-3.75 ERA, which puts him in the running for the Cy Young.
Burnout Player- Kelvim Escobar – It’s sad really. At 32 -years-old, injuries will continue to plague him until he retires. He’s been a legit Cy Young candidate three out of the last four years, but he just can’t stay healthy for 35 starts. He’ll be missed badly while he sits out the first few months of the season with shoulder inflammation.
2. Seattle Mariners:
I was completely, and horribly wrong about this team last year. I figured they would challenge for the status of “Worst Team in the AL,” and instead, they turn some heads. Now, they add a second ace to staff in Erik Bedard to compliment young fireballer Felix Hernandez, and hopefully take some of the pressure off him. Unfortunately, they torched their outfield depth to acquire him by trading “Sure Thing” prospect Adam “I’m Not Pac-Man” Jones. With 400+ at-bats, Brad Wilkerson could have finally found a home where he can play everyday in RF, and they’ll need every ounce of offense out of him. Richie Sexson shouldn’t be starting in the major leagues anymore, but since they owe him a lot of money, he’ll play. Adrian Beltre followed up an awful post-contract year with two seasons where he’s hit averaged .270-ish with 25 homers…and he needs to keep the power up to make up for the fact that he never walks. Ichiro is still one of my top-5 favorite players, and at the back end of the bullpen lurks the Major’s second best closer in J.J. Putz.
Breakout Player – Brad Wilkerson – He’ll get a chance to play everyday, and he could be a great steal. He bashed 20 homers in only 338 at-bats last year, and will fit right in with the rest of this lineup in the fact that he strikes out at an alarming rate (had 107 K’s in those same 338 AB’s).
Burnout Player – Raul Ibanez – He turns 36 in June, and I just don’t see him holding up his more-than-adequate .290/25/110 like he has averaged the past two seasons. He gets too many nagging injury, and age will catch up to him in 2008.
3. Texas Rangers:
-They finished last in the West in 2007 after trading away their best player (Mark Teixeira) at the deadline. They have nobody in their lineup with 30-homer potential besides Josh Hamilton, and he’s a recovering drug addict playing in his second full MLB season. You’d love to say that they can rely on their starting pitching, but that isn’t any better. Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla can kill you one night, and get killed another, and they have little rotation depth. The good news: they have pitching help that is a year away. The bad news: their bullpen is bad too. The only reason why these guys are ranked third here is because they have Oakland in their division.
Breakout Player – Josh Hamilton – I just want to believe it. The guy has been to hell and back, and really played incredibly well in his 90-game cameo with the Cincinnati Reds in 2007. He has the potential and the game to hit .300 with 35 homers – now you just hope he stays healthy and can stay clean.
Burnout Player – Kevin Millwood – It’s getting to be about time for this former All-Star to hang up the cleats. After his surprise sub-3.00 ERA in 2005 with Cleveland, Millwood’s ERA, walks, and opponents batting average have risen…while his strikeouts and innings pitched have been depleted.
4. Oakland Athletics:-They avoided the cellar by a single game last year, but don’t expect anything like that performance in 2008. In fact, I predict they’ll finish 30+ games out of first place. They traded staff ace Dan Haren to Arizona, and are searching for deals to get rid of inherent ace Joe Blanton. They also purged their best offensive player in Nick Swisher and are annually the biggest DL-users in the Major Leagues. Nobody on this team will approach 30 HR in my opinion, and the only guy that might crack 25 is Jack Cust, and he is your prototypical Three True Outcomes guy (HR, BB, K – the only outcomes where the defense isn’t involved). A miracle situation for Oakland would be for Eric Chavez to play well and be healthy in the first half of ’08 so they can trade him, and keep adding prospects for another run at a division title in 2010 or 2011.
Breakout Player – Daric Barton – The big 1B has been a highly touted prospect, and batted .347 in 18 games with the big club last year. Look for him to supplant Dan Johnson as the everyday 1B, and make a late push for AL Rookie of the Year.
Burnout Player – Bobby Crosby – He hasn’t played more than 100 games in each of the last three seasons, and you can’t expect 2008 to be any different. The only reason why Oakland sticks with him is because they have nobody remotely close to being a decent player that can play shortstop.
AL CENTRAL-
1. Cleveland Indians:
-They won the division by eight games last year, and only had one guy that hit over .300 (Victor Martinez .301). Their two best offensive forces, Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore had well-below-average seasons. Hafner dropped almost 20 homers, more than 40 BA points, and an alarming .200 OPS points, yet still had a pretty solid year. He recovers this year to be an offensive force once again. Grady Sizemore raised his OBP number, and kept his homers on par, but he hit 20 less doubles than he has in the past. He’ll be back to an MVP-type performance too. Combine the rise of those guys, the solid bats of Casey Blake, Ryan Garko, Martinez and Jhonny Peralta, and the best rotation in baseball, and you’ve got a title contender and a potential 100-game winner. C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona are as good as it gets in the pitching department.
Breakout Player – Ryan Garko – He is just a really good player. If he wasn’t overshadowed by Sizemore, Martinez and Hafner offensively, we’d consider him a top-flight AL player. Instead, we wont get to read about him hitting .290 with 30 homers this season. No biggie – I doubt he cares much as long as they win.
Burnout Player – Paul Byrd – Admitted use of PED’s is going to haunt him. He’s a spiritual guy that battles his mind every time he toes the rubber. I don’t see him staying in that rotation very long this year.
2. Detroit Tigers:
-Have you looked at their roster? Have you seen their projected lineup? Did you know that they are starting players at 7 out of the 9 positions that have played in an All-Star game in the past 3 years? That’s insanity. They had a pretty incredible offense last year, and now they add Miguel Cabrera and Edgar Renteria to the mix, and improving their overall defense by moving Carlos Guillen to 1B. They scored 887 runs last year, and I honestly believe they can reach 1,000. And with the pitching staff they employ…they will have to. They traded Andrew Miller in the Cabrera deal, and gave some depth away in Jair Jurrjens in the Renteria trade. Luckily they received Dontrelle Willis in the Cabrera deal also, but he’s no more than a 4th or 5th starter in the AL. He is just a shell of his former self because of the amount of innings he’s thrown, the awful defenses behind him, and his smoke and mirrors pitching motion has flaws and inconsistencies. The rotation only goes five deep at this point, but Justin Verlander at the top has a chance to win 22-23 games this year with that incredible offense. The other guys are all either old or inconsistent. Their bullpen is injury prone too, with Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya having trouble staying on the field. Still though…as the Yankees in ’07 proved, a fantastic offense can power a team to the wild card.
Breakout Player – Miguel Cabrera – Tough to find one on this team because everyone has hit their stride…but I think Cabrera could have a monster year that we only see a couple times a century. He has a legitimate shot at the Triple-Crown, and has a legitimate shot at getting his second World Series (yea, he was a rookie when the Marlins won it…that’s crazy)!
Burnout Player – Magglio Ordonez – No way, no how he repeats his ridiculous .363/28/139 numbers from last year. He’s just not that good, and Cabrera will steal numbers from him. I drafted Maggs last year in fantasy baseball, and sold him at a high price mid-season because I needed the roster space. I bet he hits a snag this year.
3. Chicago White Sox:
-It pains me to put them this high, but honestly, who someone has to finish third here. Everyone knows I’m a believer in the law of averages. After the Sox won the World Series in 2005, I predicted they wouldn’t do anything close to that in ’06 because a slew of Sox players played out of their minds during the World Series run (Joe Crede, Jose Contreras, Jermaine Dye, the entire Bullpen). Well the exact opposite will be true for these White Sox. There is no possible way their offense can be as bad as it was last year. I don’t know if they’ll have Crede on their roster to start the season, but I’d keep him if only to build his trade value. You put Josh Fields in left, Nick Swisher in center, Dye in right, and have an infield of Crede, Orlando Cabrera (acquired for Jon Garland), any 2B and Paul Konerko at first to go along with “Punch” AJ catching…that’s a pretty good lineup if everyone plays at their averages. But their rotation is extremely thin and reliant on young pitchers, and their bullpen has been patched with a couple injured/older guys that were overpaid for. Good enough to stay out of the cellar, but they cannot compete with the Top-2.
Breakout Player – I see Nick Swisher having a big year moving from the canyon that the A’s play in to the Crackerjack box the Sox play in. He’s a great OBP guy, and he’s going to jump in homers with the park move.
Burnout Player – Time for the Jermaine Dye show to end. He has amazing talent, but it’s about time that injuries derail his career for the second time. I’ll peg him for less than 25 homers this year.
4. Minnesota Twins:
-It’s sad really. Bill Smith trades the franchise player for a group of guys in which a grand total of 0 of them qualified as a “sure thing” prospect. Instead, they will count on a young man named Francisco Liriano to be the ace of the staff, except he’s coming off an arm injury. He proved when healthy, however, that he can be better than Santana himself. Yea, I said it! He can be better! But he can’t pitch everyday, and that rotation behind him is alarmingly thin (they lost Carlos Silva to free agency, and they traded Matt Garza. The back of their bullpen is among the best in the majors with Joe Nathan, Pat Neshek, and Juan Rincon – so that’s a plus. Offensively, they still have Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer and Michael Cuddyer, and they traded for Delmon Young, but they will be starting guys at 2B, SS, 3B, and CF that might not be able to stick it in Triple-A with their bats. They will score very few runs, and the pitching will give up a ton. Thank God for the Royals.
Breakout Player – Mike Lamb – With the 3B job all but his, I’ll be interested to see how he plays when he’s out there everyday. I’m not sure why Houston never gave him a full-time shot – but Minnesota has no other options.
Burnout Player – Michael Cuddyer – Him potentially moving to center field is not a smart decision. That seems to be in the water in Minnesota these days.
5. Kansas City Royals:
-Another season, another 5th place finish in the Central Division. But I have good news Royal fans: the pain will end sooner rather than later. This team is being built to develop now, and make a run at titles in the 2010-2011-ish. Dayton Moore has done a wonderful job trading for talent and drafting well. Mark Teahan, Alex Gordon, and John Buck are the start of good young positional talent, and the rotation will begin to fill out starting next year. I would get about 95% of experts to argue with me, but Jose Guillen is a great signing. Despite his beleaguered past, he can bring a great offensive game (.295/20/90 –ish) to the table when he gets done with his suspension. They won’t make any noise this year, but they’re certainly headed in the right direction.
Breakout Player – Alex Gordon – Everyone said he’s going to hit in the majors, and that’s exactly what he didn’t do during his rookie campaign of 2007. Look for him to figure things out in 2008. I’d count on him to finish about .290/25/100 this year.
Burnout Player – Gil Meche – I loved it when they signed him last offseason, but I never imagined him being a 3.67 ERA guy. He’s going to be about 4.05 in that department this year. Not quite a burnout, but they don’t have any other players that can really be considered burnouts.
AL EAST:
1. Boston Red Sox:
-Duh. What can you say? They won the title last year, and are the runaway favorites to win it again this year. The Curt Schilling injury has put a scare in the team enough to sign Bartolo Colon to a minor league contract, but I wouldn’t worry if I were a Red Sox fan. You still have Josh Beckett and “Dice-K” Matsuzaka at the top of the rotation, a good-to-great bullpen, and an offense that is as potent as ever. Not to mention one of the best defenses in all of baseball (thankfully Manny has the Green Monster behind him for 81 games). The scary thing is, they can put another potential #1 starter in Clay Buchholtz into the rotation at any time and be even better. Remember, he threw a no-hitter in his second major league start last year. The Yanks will contend, but you can’t put the Yankees above the Red Sox in good conscience. You just can’t.
Breakout Player – Julio Lugo – He will not hit .237 again this year. He’s a much better player than that, and he’ll most likely be back at the top of the lineup again this year. I’ll say he gets back to hitting .286 this year.
Burnout Player – Jason Varitek – The tank has run dry for this former All-Star and current team captain. The Red Sox keep him around because he’s still an OK defender, and he brings leadership and a great veteran presence. But if they see an opportunity to get a mediocre defensive catcher who can hit the ball…they’ll make the move for the future.
2. New York Yankees:
-It actually took me about ten minutes to remember the Yankees nickname because I could’ve sworn they switched it to the New York Jobas late last year. This is the dream season for Brian Cashman. Four awful (EXPIRING!) contracts come off the books with Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina, Carl Pavano, and Jason Giambi all out next year. Finally, the Yankees will have some financial flexibility (that’s a joke by the way) to go acquire some freaking talent. When was the last time they won a World Series? Wasn’t it 2000? That’s last century baby! Don’t believe me? Look it up. No really, the new centuries and millenniums begin in during the years ending in ‘01! Anyways, the Yankees are making the smart move by putting the legend that is Joba Chamberlain in the bullpen to start the year, then stretching him out in the minors for a couple weeks, to be followed by, as Yankees fans predict, a career filled with 14 Cy Young awards. But how will this Yankees team be with veterans that are starting to show their old age, and a bunch of young pitching? They’ll go out and win 90+ games and be in the hunt for the division and wild card, that’s what they’ll do. Because if they aren’t in the hunt, they’ll buy their way in.
-Breakout Player – Joba Chamberlain – No explanation necessary.
If you’re wondering why I inserted a random picture of Joba, it’s because our audience analysis has revealed that Joba draws readers. People want Joba, so we give people what they want. Plus, the force is strong in him, and he hasn’t sold his soul to the dark side yet, but he will so soon, however! Mwhahaha!
Burnout Player – Jorge Posada – He hit .338/20/90 in 2007. 2007 was also a contract year for him. Need I say more?
3. Toronto Blue Jays:
-They don’t have a shot at winning, or even finishing second in the East. But they will surely play a part in the saga. Good, young rotation led by cagey veteran Roy “Doc” Halladay. A decent bullpen backed by a recovering B.J. Ryan, and a pesky young lineup that could be really good if Vernon Wells can rediscover his sweet swing. At the same time, if their young pitchers don’t perform to the high level they did last year, this team could finish underneath a high rising Tampa Bay Ray team. Now that I think of it, their offense has the potential of really struggling this year as well. Why do I have them this high? I don’t know, because I screwed up so bad with the Mariners last year that I have to believe a few of the experts this year.
Breakout Player – Reed Johnson – He was a really good player two years ago. Last year, he struggled with injuries. He’ll bounce back to be a near .300 hitter on a team that didn’t even have one last year (Alex Rios .297 was the high).
Burnout Player – David Eckstein – He gets nicked up all the time, has no business playing shortstop, and should really avoid Astroturf at all costs. So the only worse place he could’ve gone was Minnesota.
4. Tampa Bay Rays:
- In 2010, this team will be competing for the World Series. You heard it here first. New ownership, new upper management, the Marlin-like talent they have sitting in the minors…it’s a perfect storm that is two years away from blowing in. The trade for Matt Garza, the signing of James Shields, the willingness to get rid of one of their five young outfielders, yes folks; it’s a new regime in Tampa Bay. They don’t have a bullpen yet, but that’s the last piece of a championship puzzle. I like the signing of Cliff Floyd as a veteran leader, and would really love to see this team go after Barry Bonds for the right price. The guy still gets on base at a .480 clip! He would put butts in the seats, and would more than likely keep quiet in the clubhouse because he would be the new guy. Go do it!
Breakout Player – Evan Longoria – Whether it’s right away, or halfway through 2008, he’ll be right there in the Rookie of the Year voting. He’s a great player waiting to happen.
Burnout Player – Carlos Pena – OK, he won’t burnout…but there is 0 chance of him hitting close to the 46 homers he had in 2007. Uh uh, not gonna happen.
5. Baltimore Orioles:
- I have one word for this team: yuck! I think they’ll struggle to win 60 games. They traded Erik Bedard and Miguel Tejada…but they had to. If they don’t make those trades…they don’t get anything for them. For the first time in my life, I’ll admit that Andy MacPhail is doing the right thing. They are in full fledged rebuilding mode.
Breakout Player – Adam Jones – Superstar prospect from Seattle came over in the trade for Bedard. He’ll start right away and play, if nothing else, incredible defense.
Burnout Player – Everyone not named Adam Jones – Because they really suck.
MVP WINNER:
Obvious Pick – Alex Rodriguez
Sneaky Pick – Miguel Cabrera
CY YOUNG:
Obvious Pick – Josh Beckett
Sneaky Pick – Justin Verlander
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:
Obvious Pick – Evan Longoria
Sneaky Pick – Daric Barton
AL DIVISIONAL ROUND:
Red Sox over Indians
Tigers over Angels
AL CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND:
Red Sox over Tigers
