By Chad Ruter:
(Editors Note: I apologize for the links not going any farther than the starting lineup for the Cubs. My computer kept timing out the links, and I got frustrated)
Despite Ryan Dempster killing my Cubs mojo for a week by predicting a title, I’ve made a full recovery and am prepared to dish out my 2008 Cubs preview. After a 2007 season that saw early ups-and-downs, the trading of Michael “The Uncatcher” Barrett, and a wonderful September only to be followed by a painful three game sweep at the hands of the Snakes, I’m finally ready for the season to begin. OK, that’s a lie. I’ve been ready for 2008 baseball to begin since four days after the 2007 season ended. That time-frame is when the burners on the hot-stove aren’t flipped on yet. Anyways…here it is…my 2008 Chicago Cubs (100 Years of Misery) preview:
1B: Derrek Lee – DLee is the only “You know what you’re going to get” player the Cubs have. He’s going to hit between .295 and .330 with 20+ homers with a .400ish OBP – barring injuries of course. Two years ago, Lee broke his wrist, which forced him to miss 2/3 of the season. Last year, it seemed like he was still recovering from it. The ball just wasn’t flying off his bat like it had been in the past. He played through it though, and was still successful because he is a line drive hitter. He will never have the season he had in 2005 when he hit 46 homers and batted .335 – but he surely won’t just hit 22 homers again this year like he did in ‘07. He’s going to play Gold-Glove caliber defense and compliment that with a .315/32/100 (AVG/HR/RBI) season. Lou Piniella is going to either hit him in the 3rd of 4th spot in the lineup depending on what he wants to do with Kosuke Fukudome. My humble opinion (which includes Soriano NOT leading off) has Lee hitting 2nd in the order to maximize the amount of at-bats he gets in a season.
2B: Mark DeRosa – DeRosa skipping a beat (literally) has me worried for a couple reasons. Number one: Heart conditions are rarely ever not serious. Number two: He was the Cubs most valuable player in 2007. He hit the ball better than I imagined, and he played all over the place. Without him, the team is undoubtedly weaker. Maybe this will get management to pull the trigger on the Brian Roberts deal. He could come to Chicago, leadoff, play 2B, and allow DeRosa to move around the diamond and give everyone a day off when necessary. He’d also bat against every lefty, and he had a career year two years ago when he served the same purpose for the Texas Rangers. If healthy, he plays solid D at second, and will post ..285/15/65 season with an OBP around .360. The Cubs desparately need him…because God knows the next guy on this list can’t play a full season.
3B: Aramis Ramirez – I love him, I really do, but he guarantees you three things every year and not all of them are good. He’s going to hit homers without striking out much, he’s going to be the streakiest hitter you have, and he’s going to hit the 15-day DL atleast once. That’s why DeRosa is so important. He is the only other guy above the age of 19 in the Cubs organization that can legitimately play at 3B if necessary. Rammy is due to hit the DL this year around June 8th, but will still hit his usual .300/31/115. He only mashed 26 homers last year, the first time in three years he hadn’t hit atleast 30, but I see him bouncing back with a little more pop and balance to the lineup. He may wind up hitting 5th if Fukudome hits in the three spot. I’d rather see Rammy hit four behind Fukudome, and Lee in front of the import. Once again…maximize the plate appearances for the best players. Did I mention that if David Wright gets hurt that Ramirez will win the Gold Glove? He’s truly become a phenomenal defensive 3B. And to think…scouts were saying that he would have to change positions because he was such a butcher when he was traded to Chicago.
SS: Ryan Theriot – Every Cubs fan that reads this will probably slay me, but it has to be said. Yes, he has a great nickname (The Riot). Yes, he is a scrappy player. Yes, he steals bases. Yes, he plays to the maximum of his ability. Yes, he takes a lot of pitches and draws walks. But as I mentioned a month or two ago, only a few Major League regulars had a lower OPS than Theriot did last year, and you just can’t have that unless you’re making it up defensively. Although he’s a solid defensive SS, he doesn’t make up for the offensive black hole he is in the lineup. If he plays everyday then he’s going to be a .275/5/40 type of player that just kind of holds things together. I’d love to see the Cubbies upgrade here, but I dont think they have the bullets to get a bonafide guy to play in the hole. If he gets hurt, I’d really like to see what Ronny Cedeno can do for more than 20 games.
LF: Alfonso Soriano – The Cubs need to find a leadoff guy, and find one fast! Soriano being at the top of the lineup is a complete waste of his largest strength – his power. OK, so he can steal bases, but you can do that damn near anywhere in the lineup. What you can’t do is have the majority of your homers being solo bombs. If a pitcher gives up a leadoff homer to Soriano, they shrug it off and say, “Ah well, atleast nobody was on base.” You need a guy in the leadoff spot that can get on-base at a better clip then the .337 Soriano posted in ‘07. He better be stealing 40 bags again to make his paultry ability to get on-base worth being at the top of the lineup. I’ll say .290/35/75 with 30 steals is reasonable.
CF: Felix Pie/Sam Fuld – Who’s it going to be? The superstar/hotshot prospect that struggled in the majors in a small sample size but dominated in the minors, or the relative nobody who made a spectacular catch to save the back of Scotty Eyre, and who came out of nowhere to win the AFL MVP award during the winter? My personal choice is to let Pie go out there and work things out. He tore up Triple-A last year, and just needs to get in the box and take his hacks in The Show. He more than makes up for his lack of offensive ability with his defense and cannon for an arm. His speed is incredible as well. I think he brings too much to the table to see him ride the pine. I like Fuld, don’t get me wrong, but I think you have to let Pie work things out in center. If you’re lineup has firepower at nearly every other position, you can afford to let him grow. The organization is just deathly afraid of a Corey Patterson repeat.
RF: Kosuke Fukudome - The enigma of it all. Superb numbers in Japan will hopefully translate well to the majors like they have for the other great Japanese hitters that scouts say he’s a cross of (Hideki Matsui and Ichiro Suzuki). He can steal bases, hit homers, draw walks, and drive the ball the other way. Being a lefty is a real key here, because he breaks up the power hitting righthanders the Cubs have been trying to offset for years with below average rightfielders (see Jeromy Burnitz and Jacque “Strap” Jones). He was hurt for much of ‘07, but has recovered fully from his ailments. I see him posting .295/18/80 in the middle of the Cubs order. Most importantly, Cubs brass hopes he brings that career .392 OBP into the Windy City, but they’ll have to settle for about .370 here in America. The best thing about Fukudome is that if neither Fuld or Pie can lock up the CF job, he can move over there, allowing either Matt Murton, Daryle Ward, or Mark DeRosa more time in RF.
C: Geovany Soto – In just 18 games for the Cubs down the stretch in 2007, Soto hit 3 bombs to go along with a .389 AVG. Not bad for a rookie. He sorta came out of nowhere in ‘07. The Cubs asked him to drop weight before the season. So what did he do? Dropped nearly 20 pounds and went out to win the Pacific Coast League MVP award. He dominated in Iowa last year, and is being handed the reigns of this fragile Cubs pitching staff. He can more than handle those duties. He’s an above average receiver who always had problems with the bat. He’s not going to tear it up in 2008, but I imagine the rookie could pull down a more-than-reasonable .275/18/65 for the Cubs. Those numbers would be phenomenal out of a position that brought nearly 0 offense to the table last year.
Bench: Daryl Ward, Matt Murton, Ronny Cedeno, Henry Blanco, Sam Fuld, Mike Fontenot/Eric Patterson. Let me just say- I love this group! Ward is an awesome pinch-hitter who can start for a week if you need him too, and the rest of the bunch is a ragtag group of speedsters and multi-positional guys. OK, Blanco doesn’t fit either of those definitions, but what catcher does? Fuld, Patterson, Cedeno, and Fontenot are all vying for the two bench spots not filled by Murt-Dog, DWard and Blanco, and all those guys can make this team. They are a scrappy bunch, and there is no better attitude to have as a bench guy then what those guys bring to the table.
Starting Pitchers: Carlos Zambrano is the #1, Ted Lilly is the #2, Rich Hill is the #4, and the other three spots are TBA. The group shooting for those spots includes Jon Lieber, Jason Marquis, Ryan Dempster, Sean Marshall, and Sean Gallagher. My prediction is that Lieber will take the three spot, and Dempster makes a surprise run and wins the #5 role. He’s always had that starting pitcher’s demeanor (and control) and should thrive in that role once again. I think Gallagher ends up throwing in Triple-A for awhile, and gets the starts when someone goes down. I think Marquis is destined for long relief, and Sean Marshall is not a MLB starting pitcher. Zambrano is going to be streaky again this year, and you’ll always be able to tell in the first inning whether or not he’s going to get rocked. It’s all about arm angle with him. If it’s up, he dominates, if it’s down, he suffocates. Simple as that.
Relievers: Let’s just stick to what we know. Eyre is the only legit lefty we have (which is fine) and the three horse race for the closer spot already has its 1/4 pole leader in Bob Howry, despite the fact we haven’t seen a pitch thrown in Spring Training games. He’s going to be the guy. Kerry Wood is said to be throwing darts out there, but he’s a touch too inconsistent for my taste in the 9th inning role. I love Carlos Marmol, and I don’t think you mess with a good thing with him. Keep him pitching in the 7th or 8th inning opposite Wood. If these guys stay healthy, they could be an extremely scary group for a full season.
Manager: Sweet Lou Piniella – Regarded as one of the five best managers in the game. I can’t disagree. He knows how and when to take pressure off his team and throw it on himself, and he’s always trying to find the right lineup that fits his team. He handles players and pitchers extremely well, and knows how to talk an umpire right to the edge. I consider there to be 10 MLB managers that can lead a team to a championship, and thank God the Cubs have one of those guys in Piniella.
Minor Leagues: Keep an eye on Angel Guzman. I think he makes the full-time switch to reliever and really comes into his own this year. He won’t start in the majors, but he’ll be up with the big club at some point. Look for Jake Fox to have a monster year in Triple-A Iowa as well. Jeff Samardzja is going to struggle in Double-A this year. He’s been rushed a bit, and the Cubs were foolish to sign him to a major league contract right out of Notre Dame.
I think this Cubs team is 3 wins better than they were in 2007, and I think they’ll have to be. The Brewers will have Ryan Braun for a full season, and the Reds are starting to look like an actual ballclub. For the season, I’ll peg Chicago at 88-74 and their first back-to-back division champioship in God knows how long.
Projected Lineup:
1. LF Alfonso Soriano
2. SS Ryan Theriot
3. RF Kosuke Fukudome
4. 1B Derrek Lee
5. 3B Aramis Ramirez
6. 2B Mark DeRosa
7. C Geovany Soto
8. CF Felix Pie
9. P (Carlos Zambrano)
Bench:
1. OF/1B Daryle Ward
2. SS/CF Ronny Cedeno
3. RF/LF Matt Murton
4. C Henry Blanco
5. 2B/LF Mike Fontenot
Projected Rotation:
1. RHP Carlos Zambrano
2. LHP Ted Lilly
3. RHP Jon Lieber
4. LHP Rich Hill
5. RHP Ryan Dempster
Bullpen:
1. CL Bob Howry
2. RHP Kerry Wood
3. RHP Carlos Marmol
4. LHP Scott Eyre
5. RHP Michael Wurtz
6. RHP Kevin Hart
7. RHP Jason Marquis
Is next year finally here? God I hope so!
