I can’t believe it. I just can’t friggin believe it! How in the world do you trade the best pitcher on the planet for the baseball equivalent of nuts and bolts? It floors me that in the high-speed communication world we live in, that MLB teams are getting fleeced this badly in trades. I don’t like boring people with trade breakdowns of players they dont know, but when the player being shuttled in the other direction is named Johan Santana, I can’t hold back.
The proposed trade (not official yet because teams need to get physicals for their new toys and the Mets have 72 hours to negotiate a $150 million-ish extension with Santana) sends OF Carlos Gomez, and pitchers Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra to the great state of Minnesota, for one: Johan. If you’re a fan of Minnesota in general…begin preparing yourself for the inevitable trading of Adrian Peterson to a football team on the east coast in the very near future. We’ve seen the T-Wolves auction off Kevin Garnett for 30 cents on the dollar, and it appears the Twinkies have received about the same value for a phenomenal pitcher in his prime.
Justin paniced when he saw the trade come across the wires…because I’m sure the ESPN scroll read something like: BREAKING NEWS: ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports that the Minnesota Twins have reached an agreement to trade P Johan Santana to the New York…
This is the point that Justin starts jumping up and down and dialing me on his cell phone to tell me the glorious news, only to be shot down at the very same moment by seeing the word METS instead of YANKEES – prompting that improptu blog Justin rattled off earlier today.
The Yankees and Red Sox both had better deals on the table in December, and now the Twins had to settle for scraps that your 4-year-old sister would toss to the dog. Here’s a quick breakdown of the players the Twins received in the deal.
Quick note: Honest to God J, I had to look up who two of these guys in the trade. I know baseball prospects…but not any that wouldn’t show up in the Top-100.
The Guys I Know:
Carlos Gomez (3rd best Mets prospect according to Baseball America). This 22-year-old OF has been with the Mets since he was 18, and has progressed through their system nicely – consumating in his call-up to the majors in 2007. He’s considered a 5-tool prospect as I eluded to yesterday, but I would say he is a 3-tool guy at best. His career OBP in the minors is .339, and you can expect that number to drop to about .310 in the majors. He only has 20 career professional homers, so there is no way he can be considered a power prospect either. Gomez is by no means a guaranteed star in the majors, and would be a solid #2 prospect player in a trade like this…but most definitely should not be a centerpiece.
Philip Humber (7th best Mets prospect). Humber was a big time pitcher in the collegiate ranks at Rice, but is in no way a top of the rotation starter now or in the future. The highest I’ve ever heard him considered is a #4 pitcher, and I wouldn’t put him that high right now. He pitched most of 2007 at Triple-A New Orleans and managed just a 4.27 ERA. On the plus side, New Orleans is in the Pacific Coast League, which is considered to be a hitters league, so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt there. He’s 25 now, and won’t crack the Twins rotation, now or ever. His peripheral statistics dont shout anything at me either. His K/BB and K/IP aren’t anything to cry home about. Not good.
The Guys I Don’t Know
Kevin Mulvey (4th best Mets prospect). A 22-year old righty who has more college than pro experience is another guy that just doesn’t jump off the charts stastically, and I’ve never heard his name mentioned in the same sentence as “electric stuff.” He’s only pitched one full year above Rookie ball, but did do quite well…racking up a 3.32 ERA in Double-A Binghamton. His K/IP splits aren’t great, but he does have almost a 3/1 K/BB ratio. Let me just say one thing…when I’m pulling out a K/BB stat to prove a guys worth in a trade, we’ve got serious issues. I’m supremely confident I could go 3-10 against this guy…and I haven’t stood in against a 90’s fastball in nearly 4 years.
Deolis Guerra (2nd best Mets prospect). He’s young (19), and that’s why he is a top prospect. Youth is such a key to baseball players because they peak in their high 20’s, so if a guy can be successful in the Majors in his early 20’s he considered highly valuable. This Venezuelan righty has pitched a full season in High-A ball, and posted a 4.01 ERA in 20 starts there in 2007. He’s still a long ways away from the Major Leagues (2-3 years at best), and still isn’t a guy that is going to scare you out of the batters box. He’s a #3 prospect in a deal like this…but with the lack of talent in this deal, could be considered the prize pull. All depends on the scouts looking, and the talent evaluation process.
Now that I look at this trade after writing it out…it’s even worse then when I read it today! If you’re a Mets fan, you have to be peeing your pants in excitement. You got the best pitcher in baseball right now, and gave up, conceivably, nothing that even resembles a future star. Absolutely awful is the only way I can describe this trade from Minnesota’s perspective. I’m just sad the Cubs didn’t get in on this bidding. I coulda scrounged up a return better than this. Simply amazing!
On the prediction front, if Johan is fully healthy, just hand him the Cy Young award right now. I mean…pitching against the Marlins and Nationals on a consistent basis, and even the lefty heavy Phillies will struggle against him. Moving to the inferior league is the best thing that may ever happen to Santana, and he instantly makes that team a title contender.
Since Eddie Murphy successfully predicted the NFC Championship game, I thought I’d unveil the Super Bowl prediction made in the movie I Am Legend. Take a look at the screenshot below (the frozen scroll bar at the bottom).
-CR
